VLO — 12 entries on this page, 0 of them a change of direction.
Look at what Valero, a refining company, did. Look at that crazy movement here in this arrow. Yes, it may experience a corrective period, but I believe that in the event of any downturn, Valero remains a buy option.
It made a breakout here, you can see it at 187. And it reached 419.
Either way, that's bearish for the names like a Valero. And if we look at Valero, look at the drop that we've seen the last couple days. First of all, look at the extension. I still think there's more downside on Valero.
Again, we'll see if it happens today with oil bouncing, but in the near term, I do think Valero, PSX, MPC, they all should come down much, much much more.
But as far as Valero Energy stock is concerned , we have many years of trading to look at. We are seeing a drop in oil prices, and consequently, Valero's stock also fell slightly during today's session, by approximately 2%. But how do you view Valero now, Charles?
Honestly, the trend was amazing, so any pullback in the stock price was remarkable, and that's exactly what I'm looking for: an opportunity for a quick recovery. I believe the entry point here is appropriate at a key technical level, and I would consider it a quick entry and exit opportunity .
Valero, MPC, uh, Philips 999, which is PSX. But this is a this is an outlier. I just heard about this today is that in Europe, they're talking about instituting a windfall tax on the refiners because they're making so much money.
That could signal a change in narrative in those stocks where you could start to see those stocks starting to fall as speculators run for cover. If it was if it was passed if it was announced and passed a windfall tax even just out of Europe, these stocks would probably drop 15 to 20% as again it would wipe out a lot of the profits that they are making.
Yet, Valero is still higher on the session. There you go, Marley. Yeah, I mean the thing is is Valero has just been had such an incredible year. Needless to say, and some of those metrics as you pointed out are are the reasons, but also it's the refining aspect of Valero. think that's the the uh unique aspect here when you look at Valero from a long a little bit bigger broader picture and why they've been so successful so far this year and I think that that's going to continue there's certainly indications that re refining is challenged right now and that's something that takes years to uh uh balance and I think that that's a factor why Valero I think will continue to maintain this upward momentum even if we do see crude and crude products come under a little bit of selling
yeah, the whisper on that seems to be that they would restart Benicia perhaps the Valero refinery uh which was you know regulated out of out of uh operation only in the last year. uh Valera finally capitulated right before this latest crisis actually but you know it was nothing to do with the crisis it just was a bad economic place to operate in California and California has really caused its own problems in a lot of ways so it could be restarting Benicia
But this stock we're looking at is on Valero. Now, let me back out to show you really how I've been drawing uh the progress and monitoring the progress technically on this chart.
So, you can see here I've got two parallels. The first one's the blue parallel started all the way back in October of 2020 that contained price all the way up here until March of this year.
One thing I will say is you have refiners like Valero and PSX which have a massive crack spread right now and it's so ridiculous because they are literally printing money because the the the margins of this are so like what they're charging you and I to drive etc at the gas pump compared to what they're getting that oil for.
Um it is massive right now. I do expect that to shrink after Labor Day and I have highlighted Valero as one of my favorite shorts here over the next couple weeks.
Uh, one of my favorite shorts remains Valero. Valero, which right now is trading up about a buck 50 pre-market. Look at this trend line here. And this is more of a swing trade, but Valero again uh into major resistance, extremely extended, starting to put in negative divergences.
Uh I do think that this refiner is due for a significant correction on a swing trade basis and I do have a position in this one on the short side with members of smart money uh stocks and ETFs.
Um, last night a vago is getting beat up because um, you know, there there was a decent report, but it wasn't anything. Wow. And then they also talked about 2028, how looks like it's going to be a stronger year.
So the question is do we want half glass full where we're going to say okay you know what 2028 let's look at that or hey maybe there is a soft spot so we got to be careful anyway
Now, we have clearly seen that refined product margins have widened even further, so refiners such as Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have seen huge free cash flows over the past two quarters, much of which has been returned to shareholders in the form of share buybacks or higher dividends.
All right, finally, Valero. I could probably put 10 energy stocks in here for, you know, charts to watch for September, but I'll just leave one of them. Uh, you know, the EMP names in particular like Valero.
You know, obviously this is uh in some cases a play on crude oil uh and uh and if you see crude oil prices going higher, but just in the last couple weeks as the conditions in the Middle East have been, let's say, in flux and and potentially a reescalation of that conflict, obviously there's going to be a lot of attention on the news headlines out of the Middle East and whether there's a reescalation, but we're seeing crude oil prices hold above $80 a barrel.
And if that's the case, should be a pretty good thing for uh for stocks like VLOO. Certainly a tailwind to future growth.
