SPY — All updates

First, guys , with the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Okay, the Standard & Poor's 500 index on the daily timeframe, as you can see here, what did we reach at the highest level of today's price movement?

We have reached the descending trend line , the trend line we have been talking about since the moment we identified the pivot points after the S &P 500 hit a new all-time high.

If you are looking at the E-Mini S&P 500 index, and if you are one of those day traders, it has been trading above the volume- weighted average price since last night. So, this is actually a somewhat positive sign .

We are trying to recover a little here. You need to stay above the average daily volume-weighted price to give a little confidence that you are actually able to recover some of these levels.

First off, guys, with the S&P 500, we see here on the S&P 500 daily chart. What happened over the last two trading days, guys, we had a rip roaring rally on Monday, pushing us above this declining trend line.

But then what happened here on Tuesday, guys? We didn't push up further than the high on Monday's candle. More or less, we didn't get any further extension. Look at what that does to the chart when price breaks out from a certain line. that that extension move is critical to maintain the breakout scenario on this chart.

And the S&P 500, guys, did not do it. We simply are coming straight down on the chart as you see here for the day.

The S&P 500 is trading on this line, and has seen a notable rise since Friday following a surge of interest in artificial intelligence, then paused temporarily yesterday. The index reached 775 points, and the question was: Will it reach 780 points?

Will it achieve new record levels on the S&P 500 index? We definitely felt that on Monday. But to say that we have seen a major reversal so far would be accurate. We have fallen by about 1% from yesterday's highs on the Standard & Poor's index.

Today we will be discussing the Standard & Poor's 500 index, some of the major high-growth exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the energy sector, and then Bitcoin. We will begin by analyzing the patterns of the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

We always start our day by analyzing the pattern network.

Let's take a look at the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 index tracks the S& P 500 index, and we see, oh my god, I pressed the wrong button. We can see on the Japanese candlestick charts , these are the daily candles, that we are very close to its all-time highs , as it is trading today at 7770.

Yesterday's rise was 0.08%. We have witnessed a significant movement. We had two green days, two days that were greenish , and then Monday to start this week, it was great. We have seen this large bullish candle.

Hoping my spy calls I held over the weekend stay printing. And yeah, your spy trade looking pretty good. It is actually my hope, just I'll I'll just give this to you before we cover the spy chart.

It's actually my hope that we get a little bit of extension here. I know we're gapping up this morning, but like a gap up move down just going to kind of be sideways here. I'd like to see us get some extension.

Should be great for your calls. We'll see if we end up getting that.

Now, let's begin this analysis of the stock market, starting with the S&P 500 index.

So, the S&P 500 index is telling us here that this decline we predicted has happened.

But, this is the S&P 500 index. Currently, with the momentum slowing and the cycle forming negatively here, I give weight to a good probability that this weekly pattern here will not bottom out until the cycle bottom here, which comes in late September or early October.

I thought we peaked in 2021, which seemed entirely accurate when the S&P 500 fell by 18 or 19% and the Nasdaq by 35%, but we bounced back with two consecutive 25% growth rates.

In 2021, you had a 10-year period in which the S&P 500 index had made gains of 16.6%. It witnessed an explosion in profit margins and valuation multiples. There wasn't much revenue growth, but the market was trading at 22.8 times a record profit margin of 13.3%.

even if the S&P 500 manages to reach a new record high, it is likely not to be a very large record high.

because the S&P 500 is only 4% below its record highs. This is not what usually happens at a point where there are many cycles that form bottoms. This is another thing that makes me think that this positive scenario I am presenting to you here may be less likely.

First, with the S&P 500 up 1.13% today, that's an excellent performance. As you can see, over the past four trading days, we have touched the horizontal trend line derived from a previous all-time high in June.

This area has been a point of contention, whether we were heading down, up, or down, or even today we have seen an upward gap, then a drop, then a test of this level, then a bounce.

So last week this week actually so this is yesterday plus about 45 minutes of trading of today is hooking spy back down. And you see a quite a similar picture in g and liquidities.

So at the top line with spy remaining completely on the right hand side which basically tells us that relative strength for spy versus vbinx which is our benchmark in this in this framework is still positive mildly positive because it's on the right hand side the momentum is not all that it's like literally zero or just slightly declining so not nothing much in the momentum space

So, let me just bring up a chart of the of spiders here real quick. It's just not a great chart, but it works. Um, so this is the the S&P and there there's certainly some levels that we want to kind of look at and once we start getting over to to where we are.

The the 200 day moving average is way down here. It's uh on the SN on on spiders and using spiders right now as kind of a just a proxy for the S&P 500. That's around 715 718 on the S&P.