TSLA — All updates

We'll start off with Tesla. Tesla having a great day. Actually a stock with good volume comparatively, right? but Tesla on pace to finish with at or around average volume compared to the last 30 days

on Tesla we're coming into a key or excuse me a key level of resistance though that I anticipate let's say we push up there I anticipate a pullback and it is this nice gap fill from earnings

looking at some of these EV companies this morning. BYD, Tesla, Xpong, and NEO.

It was sort of initially sold, I guess, the marketplace is sort of the Chinese counterpart to Tesla because it was a little bit nicer vehicle at the time.

Well, then speaking of, you know, maybe a company that isn't as exposed to China as maybe people thought they might be, you know, 10 years ago, Tesla, it's kind of the the the scale winner here in the US.

It's also a robotics and automation type of leader as well. It's one of the only that's kind of blended all of those. Where does Tesla fit into this discussion?

Space Exploration Technology Company or SpaceX, ticker SPCX, and Tesla, ticker TSLA. Their CEO Elon Musk thinks that the US advances in artificial intelligence and robotics would help the country widen the wealth gap with Europe.

Massive investments in AI and robotics were further illustrated by Musk's Starbase in Louisiana, which could result in the Optimus becoming the first ever van machine. He also said that the company was targeting 1 gawatt of solar power deployments.

I think in in order for in order to bring enough power online, I think SpaceX and and Tesla will probably have to make the turbine blades the blades and blades internally. This is the limiting factor key to Tesla and SpaceX's future dominance when it comes to AI compute and their models.

Today I will be talking about an update to the Retire on but with a twist and that is what happens if you have Tesla and if it converts to SpaceX, what are the ratios? How does it impact your retirement bag?

My question is, is our retire on Tesla bags? I finally filled my bag with about 320 shares, about 58% of my portfolio. And you said, look at our Tesla shares as an option on SpaceX.

Yes, a call option on SpaceX, which I get, but how do we look at this as far as retire on by 2032 with 300 shares and your and other analyst projections of price now that everybody believes SpaceX will buy Tesla?

Does the number of shares change because of the price post merger and several years out?

To me Tesla is real world AI. It's different and Tesla real world AI has no competition. I think there's a lot of people who think that the large language models are going to like be successful in real world AI.

And I think people don't really grasp how hard real world AI is.

Think about this. When you ask any of your AI is a question, it usually takes at least a second to respond. And if you, you know, Tesla's car is responding in milliseconds. It's getting a huge volume of data coming in, seven cameras, maybe some other sensors, and it's making decisions like constantly making decisions in 15, 20, 30 milliseconds. And none of the LLMs can do that.

Some juicy new info, apparently, on Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot. He's making sick progress, and he's not showing it publicly, but I saw it.

Optimus will be the best-selling, I think, product of all time. Yeah, the fidelity of the Optimus is and its ability to do novel things, you kind of nailed it. I don't want to say any more.

How about Tesla? Well, now a different story with Tesla, right? It fell off a cliff after the sell signal in July. And then July 14th was the sell signal. Boom. Rocket ships down.

And basically uh you know, watching a blow up on the uh on the launchpad like the uh what was it? Blue Origin rocket did, right? Absolutely crushed.

I currently hold positions in companies like Rocket Lab, Tesla, a very small position in SpaceX right now just because I didn't have a lot of free capital to put into SpaceX. But I love that company.

I'm very excited about that and I'm going to be working on growing that allocation but also Nvidia Palunteer um some micro strategies

As you can see, it's helping to elevate price mainly with Tesla's news getting itself out of this near-term bearish consolidation away from this support level that mind you still has not yet been tagged.

We got Tesla doing its thing.

And Nvidia, Tesla, and Palanteer are the usual top holdings.

in order down there from Nvidia all the way down to SpaceX, Palunteer, AMD, and Tesla.

Tesla is a robo taxi story, not a earning story. Approved to expand the robo taxi fleet to 5,000 vehicles in Nevada. Cyber a Cyber Cab launch date is now on the calendar. That's big.

We talked about this for years. They're finally getting there.

Uh Tesla? Yeah, Tesla's been a little annoying, to be honest. I'll leave you with Tesla. Um it tried to hold this bottom end of this ascending channel here. Um SpaceX has been much better to trade, to be honest.

Um This is probably up a little bit, you would assume, right? What's Tesla doing this morning? It's up a dollar 20, not doing a whole hell of a lot. Tesla's a broken name. Very, very, very broken.

Um tried to have a decent move. It kind of broke below it. Um I guess you could say, "Hey, you know what? You want to give it to here? That's your new stop." And you think it's going to go sideways and continue. Well, that's fine.

This is a plain English reading of my 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model base case. Over the next two decades, the model does not treat SpaceX and Tesla as nice growth companies.

It treats them as engines that can reorganize how the world moves bits, atoms, energy, and intelligence.

Tesla's SpaceX chart as well. Very simple. A lot of people are confused by the colors. This is the pair chart that you use. When it's blue, you buy Tesla. When it turns orange, you buy SpaceX.

When it's blue, Tesla. Orange, SpaceX. Blue, Tesla. Orange, SpaceX. Blue, Tesla. If you are a pair trader in retirement can't tax-free, this is a money maker. It helps you bag more of the asset.

So, for example, if you went in here at this color change, rode it to the top, you make 40% more SpaceX shares by buying Tesla, riding that up, and then you go down, and you play the other direction.

Um Let me pull this up. Okay. This would look like a negative return, but if you go down to here, you know, make another 15% etc. going back. So, watch this carefully. This These are volatile and they're beginning to get tighter, which I expect will continue.

I don't know how long this pair option will last,

Tesla up 6.02% I heard a little bird told me that the Tesla Semi was going to go into scale production in September, and that same little bird told me the humanoid Optimus robot from Tesla is going to go into scale production in September.

They told me this in July. And so far, they are right on the Tesla Semi. They're talking about that scale production. They're very quiet about the Optimus story, but the same source is already one for two, and the question is, is Optimus going to scale production?

I think it is in Fremont, California, and it looks like JP Morgan saw it last week, and they were very impressed with this one. They six season, they can't say anything. Like anybody else who's seen it, they're keeping it very much under very tight wraps, but this thing is bonkers, the Tesla Semi.

It's going to sell like a hotcake because truckers love to drive it, and it saves trucking companies a lot of money. That's all the trucking companies care about is the cost per mile, and this basically is a 50% saving over a diesel engine.

Tesla has announced the Cyber Cab launch event will be September 3rd.

My prediction is that Tesla stock will fall after September 3rd. might run up to September 3rd. But my experience with events like this for Tesla is when they have this big kind of event, the stock usually falls the next day, people's hopes and expectations get up too high and then the event actually happens and it's not that big of a deal.

Maybe this will be different. Maybe there'll be some positive macro news or something that'll boost the stock and maybe I'm just wrong. So with 69% confidence, 69.420% 420% confidence.

I think the stock is likely to fall on September 4th.