Now what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at SMH, XLF, XBI as proxies for the stock market because how these align. Then we'll look at the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 uh and if uh have a little time we'll look at the VIX and then I'll show you the market condition monitor uh moving forward.
SMH — All updates
SMH — 5 entries on this page, 1 of them a change of direction.
I've done this with this SMH in the past.
Next up into the semis, guys, and then as you all know, I love following the semis as a leading indicator. And guys, what happened Friday is something all of you guys can follow because I've tried to go step-by-step to help you understand whether we're going to be bullish near-term with the semi in uh with the semis or we're going to be a little bit bearish.
Most importantly, I'm gauging bullish sentiment with this chart right here, the SMH, guys. And the SMH, as you see here, finished basically flat on the day, down .01%. Now, after hours, slipping just ever so slightly in anticipation of these Nvidia earnings.
And I'll remind you guys, I've been highlighting these moving averages on this chart, and I've been doing so for a reason. You see this 50-daily moving average in blue that comes in through the screen.
We had one day above it, and then a technical sell-off from that point. The sell-off has pushed price back into the parallel channel that price has been contained since the liberation day lows.
Next up, the SMH also declined. Now, this one heavier than the other indices that we've covered so far. You can see down 2.43% on the SMH today. Nice decline, but look what happened, and I did highlight this last week, guys.
I've been drilling at home with the SMH saying, "Guys, the longer-term patterns, as well as the semis, are leading indicators, so pay attention to both in the semis. Our long-term inclining parallel that we've got displayed on our chart, and then plus this is a leading indicator for bullish activity, but we're getting close to another bounce level on certain memory plays.
Something that we're going to cover a little bit later in the show. First off, let's look at this SMH dropping down back into this parallel channel. For any viewers who have not seen this or to remind the ones that have, this parallel began back here at the liberation day lows back in April of 2025.
You can see with this fall that we had here in July of this year, we actually pierced got inside of it, but only four or five trading days and we quickly bounced to get right back above.
So, the big news story of the day today is right here on this chart with the SMH getting back within that parallel channel. Next support, should the selling presume in into tomorrow resume into tomorrow, it's going to be at $526.10 on the chart.
Very nice entry back into this parallel, one that could be hard to confirm without coming down and tagging support. Confirming it would be a daily close under today's low at $546.75.
So, I'm going to be watching the SMH very, very closely tomorrow.