GLD — All updates

GLD. It's It's good that you asked. So GLD, I thought this is going to be a long-term top when we saw that parabolic uh move to the upside. I shorted silver, not GLD. I did silver short, but I didn't keep it all the way to to the 20 on this is a monthly chart.

So, I was actually a little bit surprised to see GLD bounce as hard as it did off that off that buy setup on the monthly chart. So, now that's the monthly. Here's the weekly. The weekly is not looking too hot.

We had that big bounce, but it's come it's come back in too much. So, now we want to see it reclaim that 20 and base a little bit. If it can do that, then maybe it has a chance of going back up.

But as is GLD does not look good. We have that little base pop drop and then base and then kind of a breakdown. So GLD is not looking too hot. If I was in it, if I was in it, I'd be worried.

I'd be probably out of it already. But if you're in it, see if it can base a little bit and then start to go back up. In which case, you can use today's low as your stop. But GLD um it's not something that I would be thrilled to own.

Unlike Palunteer, unlike you know Ethereum, Bitcoin, this thing might take a while before it's actually ready to go back up. If I were to show you GLD from if we go back to like 20 early part of my career really 20 2009 or I don't know when it topped out 2012.

I mean, it took this is 2011, August 2011. When did when did it exceed that high? It took I mean, okay, maybe it exceeded it a little bit here. But really, it took all the way until 24.

So, from 2011 till 2024 to get your money back. I mean, pretty much. And even here, that's like in 2020 when everything went higher. So it took like nine years, 9 to 15 years, 14 years for it to actually take out the top.

Not every top eventually gets taken out. Not right away. We saw that in the Q's also the NASDAQ when it topped out in in Mar in in 2020. I'm sorry, in 2001. It took 16 years for it to actually take out that high.

So, you know, I don't want you to think, oh, well, gold always goes up. Sure. But if it takes 20 years to get your money back, is is it worth it to hold? Not not always, right?

Usually is not. So GLD, I love the rally, but I am not thrilled about the pullback. It's hasn't been good. It's not something I would hold personally.

But as you can see here with gold putting in another somewhat flat day on the chart. Now, yesterday we had a drop and we did do a drop underneath the bottom range of this inclining parallel channel.

Let me show you where that comes from. Dating all the way back here to April of 2025. Why this is very important and we're on a watch for a potential breakdown in gold. And we didn't get it today.

We didn't get a further move down under yesterday's close under the parallel channel. Further giving insight as to what I anticipate could be a little bit of a relief in the 10-year yield tomorrow.

But we didn't confirm a break here on the chart of gold. I could see a situation where we have one candle down and another couple candles just right back up without extending the confirmed close away from that key line that you see here displayed out on your chart.

Currently at $4,312. Now, if the yields continue to push up, next near-term support on gold will be down here at $4,193. Next thing though for gold, get back into the parallel channel and then we'll start talking about near-term resistance as this one will be a more significant medium-term resistance level up at $4,575.

All right, let's go into some gold action here. Gold today, early in the day when yields were down and the dollar was at its lows, gold was at its highs, traded as high as 4,400.

By the end of the day, it gave back half of that gain. In fact, more than half, just up about 6%. This is all I care about on gold. This trend line at 4,300, that has to hold next week.

You still have your head and shoulders pattern here, which is a very, very important bearish pattern formation. Only bearish if it triggers with a daily close below the neckline of 4,300. Watch that closely next week.

Uh gold is back up over the 50. It's under the 200. It's got some work to do to get up this 429, but it's gold and we're in an inflationary environment. There's this all this stuff going on with Japan and um I think there's going to be a reset to the to the currency soon.

Don't know when. Uh probably after the midterms and uh and gold I think will catch a bid at that point or we you know, we'll see. Uh but right now the action is a little bit short-term constructive and a and shorter term a little bit weak on gold.

Uh but the the nice thing is there hasn't been a huge amount of selling on high volume.

Gold Gold I sold all my gold. >> [snorts] >> Um I did not I was almost ready to rebuy it back, to be honest. And I just didn't do it yesterday. I was too caught up in other things, but you know, if you remember we were buying the 385s and then I rolled up options all the way and I got rid of my GLD um 410s, you know, into this strength and I'd like to be able to buy the 430s for maybe September 18th.

I just didn't quite do it yesterday. What's it doing this morning? Gold closed up a little bit. Um Actually, it's not. So, I'm going to probably buy a set of September, you know, 18 calls.

I'd love to see this go into the eight day and then buy the 430s and roll them up one more time. Um hopefully you've already bought the 385s and made money on those, the 400s and 410s.

We did three different sets of gold calls. They were awesome. We even had a power play for GLD. So, gold's been a really nice sequence. You catch a sequence like this, that could make you month, it make you quarter.

As far as gold is concerned, again, gold I I don't think has a strong potential for a lower low. Still within the realm of a reasonable possibility more so than I would prefer.

And I'm leaving that on the chart, but I think it's a bit more likely that gold just gets a retracement rather than a lower low. Now, I'm going to warn you I still have no indication that gold has even topped.

I need to take out the 4600 support for gold to make it more likely that we are in that pullback. And as you can see, I mean it's looking like we are getting a corrective pullback so far.

Could this be a one two to the downside? It could be, but I'm not I'm not I'm not jumping on that. Not just yet. I want to see how we get below support before I make any further determinations of bigger downside. For now, this is what I'm looking for.