ADBE — All updates

Yes. Well, I feel like this is one that there there's going to be a lot of agreement and disagreement in the comments about Adobe. You know, this is one of those companies that was hit by the SaaS apocalypse earlier this year.

You know, there's been this, I think, concern that because of the rise of generative AI tools, AI agents, the prevalence of that technology, but also how incredibly accurate and more useful it's getting, that you're going to have a essentially almost all software companies just go completely defunct.

I think that there are absolutely software companies that exist right now that will not be here 3 to 5 years from now. That is certain. However, you have to look at a company by company, you know, basis.

You have to look at each platform individually. I personally think Adobe is an example of a company that has been really underestimated by the stock market, particularly as we look at how the business is actually doing, right?

It's Adobe, ticker symbol ADBE. Rate the strength of Adobe's business, including factors like industry and competition. 10 is invincible, a one is hopeless. Both of you have sevens, Matt.

Yeah, I mean, Adobe still has a an enormous user base. It's a sticky user base. People who have used Acrobat, you know, you know, have the Premiere tools and all that, they'll they'll still use it.

Uh monthly active users surpassed 850 million. It grew 20% year-over-year, which is pretty impressive.

The next stock I'll highlight is Adobe, a business that was beaten down as a result of the SAS apocalypse earlier this year, but shares are recovering. Still, I calculated an upside of over 20% for Adobe stock as I calculated a fair value at $351 and a market price of $292.

One of the reasons why I'm optimistic about Adobe is because of the high switching cost. Even if enterprises find an attractive substitute utilizing artificial intelligence that might cost the company less after they switch, the cost of switching is so elevated to switch their entire business process away from Adobe and into a new system is costly for organizations that have been using Adobe for years or even decades.

So I am currently holding Adobe and I am currently holding Asenture and I am holding those in a portfolio waiting of 3.7% per uh per stock.

So basically what that means is we could say okay well let's put Adobe here between S and 80 right just as an example um that would mean okay in 10 or 20 years time we believe Adobe will be still existing and will be a stronger company than today

and then we also have a value today tier list where simultaneously to some extent we'll discuss the same companies but with the premise of saying well do we believe Adobe will be a good company in the next I would say Sean give me your thoughts but I would say like one to four years.

That's what we saw with Adobe, Lululemon, all of those companies.

one position that kept winning all of these capital allocation wars in our intrinsic value portfolio has been Adobe. We added to our Adobe position and I had to look it up four times already.

And I can also spoil that the first lesson we need to take from this is only double down when the stock is at least down 15 to 20% from our entry price because we kept buying in the range from 380 to 315 which looking back at it might have been a bit too expensive.

Adobe is down massively from $660 per share. Now it's down to 255. So the stock is still down around 60 to 70% from its all-time highs.

So let's look at each of these and start off with Adobe. I believe Adobe has a high potential for a turnaround and the reason why is because this is one of the clearest cases of the fundamentals not matching the story.

There is a massive massive disconnect. Typically, when you hear a story of a company, the fundamentals should follow it to some degree. They they should go up with the story or they should go down with the story.

But in this case, the fundamentals are saying one thing, the story is saying an entirely different thing.

I'll be going over some expectations for this as well as Adobe that will also be reporting earnings later this week.