"TSLA fits Burry’s “short exuberance” approach, with the trade framed as a bearish bet via Tesla puts rather than a value-on-absolute-cash-flow position."
@ ~$378.67
Burry's Trades: Short TSLA, NVDA, long China, Fintech, Software
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. is being added to TickerReceipts' tracked-analyst index. 11 stocks are in their coverage scope; verified prediction data will appear here as videos are processed.
"TSLA fits Burry’s “short exuberance” approach, with the trade framed as a bearish bet via Tesla puts rather than a value-on-absolute-cash-flow position."
"TSLA looks like pure marketing with promises of future growth but no profits, and the stock is kept elevated mainly by passive S&P 500 index flows despite extreme valuation (about $1.2T market cap, P ratio ~360, and losses cited as ~$5B/yr), so I’m bearish here."
"TSLA's selloff risk is partially offset because the market's “hidden engine” is high earnings confidence tied to already-baked-in growth expectations, so its downside isn’t purely sentiment-driven."
"TSLA looks like a future-focused buy despite weak near-term profitability, because the market is pricing long-dated robot/AI compute bets and even a high-valuation setup can keep working while passive flows chase the narrative."
"TSLA is the only clean short in Michael Burry’s portfolio, but passive-index inflows (needing to buy ~4% given its >$1T market cap) and Elon’s ability to sustain the valuation make it a stock that can run higher even with bad results."
"NVDA is treated as another “short exuberance” name through puts, implying the stock’s upside is overstretched relative to the negative-sentiment window Burry is leaning into."
"NVDA's AI leadership is vulnerable because the profitability of the AI narrative may be overestimated and AI competition could compress margins toward zero, making a large drawdown risk plausibly underpriced in the bubble setup."
"NVDA is being used via put hedges as protection against sharp downside tail risk (including the possibility of a move toward prior levels like the mid-$70s), even though the strategy is framed more as portfolio insurance than a direct bearish bet."
"PLTR is included among the put-based bearish exposures in Burry’s latest trades, aligning it with a broader view that current expectations are too optimistic."
"BABA is a long China software exposure for Burry, sized at about 6% of the portfolio as a way to own “long pessimism” rather than chase sentiment."
"BABA’s setup is framed as relative-positioned exposure to a potential repricing in China if pricing-war pressure eases, with incremental upside tied to China AI capex growth dynamics."
"BABA is a buyable-but-not-cheap enough winner where e-commerce profit pressure is being reinvested into AI/chips/cloud, and if AI revenue targets are hit the valuation could re-rate meaningfully."
"JD is also a China software-oriented long in Burry’s portfolio framework, held at roughly a 7% position as part of the bet on buying negative sentiment."
"JD is viewed as a sentiment/market-repricing trade where further pressure or stabilization plus potential margin dynamics from easing pricing wars could create a reversal, rather than a pure long-term business conviction."
"SPX is in the greatest bubble scenario and an eventual 80% decline is plausible once cash flows revert and earnings turn negative—dropping from all-time highs toward ~1,400 after an initial run toward ~8,000."
"BLK’s reported ~$750B/year inflows help explain why the crash is “not yet,” implying SPX downside likely requires these flows to revert."
"WKL looks like a compelling value opportunity because the stock is down ~64% in 14 months, it still generates ~83% recurring revenue with ~9% free-cash-flow yield and a low-teens valuation (P around ~10–11) while remaining entrenched in health/tax/financial/legal-regulatory niches and using AI to support operations, even though forward growth is guided to low single digits."
"PYPL’s near-term setup is working because large buybacks (e.g., $6B) can drive substantial upside over the year, though the main concern is margin-of-safety versus long-term business durability."
"TCEHY looks like a relatively cheap compounder with improving margins, double-digit revenue growth, and ongoing buybacks/dividends, making it a “green” value-style setup despite China regulatory/competition risk."
"PDD screens as a value opportunity even with slowing growth because profitability remains intact and management’s reinvestment cycle could set up another iteration of its platform model over the next few years."