What did Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium say about $MU? — the claim, the clip, the other side

$MUBear claim

The claim

“Micron is at a cyclical peak — surging supply, weakening demand, and unsustainable margins point to an 80% downside over the next few years.”

Why he says it — point by point

FAVORABLE & AGAINST · BOTH KEPT

On record

I think we already peaked in the memory business

this CapEx has basically doubled just over the past year

over time, that demand will be elastic based on prices

how can you put less expensive memory in an iPhone, in a computer, in an AI stack?

those margins that are 80-85% are not going to maintain it

that low price-to-earnings multiple is a warning sign

80% implied downside even with just going back to normal operations

Direction

Bearish

Catalyst

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Target

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“Micron is at a cyclical peak — surging supply, weakening demand, and unsustainable margins point to an 80% downside over the next few years.”

From "Why Memory Stocks Could Fall 80% Or More!"

Publish-day price $$904.28 · the claim is anchored to the moment it was said.