AAPL 全部观点

Apple let's talk Apple I'm not here to complain you know I'm not a complainer I'm just trying to sympathize sympathize if I can say that word with guys that are you know having a little bit of um you know back and forth and not a lot of traction um because I've been doing this a long time and I know a lot of guys who've been doing this a long time and they're not loving the tape either.

Um Apple, so I've talked about this a lot. You know the I personally some people like Red Dog, it's like Vision Pro. Remember that freaking thing that Apple had that you know kind of like the metaverse and nobody bought it?

They're like that's what this I'm like no way. like this the the new phone the the foldable phone um I think could sell 10 million units which could add money to the bottom line.

Uh, next up, we've got Apple. Now, forgive me. I've already got my fib tools on here illustrating these pivot lows and highs in which we're going to illustrate where price can eventually go, a price level that I will be interested in buying.

So, let's get back to the weekly time frame so I can really show you what's going on on this chart. You can see here we've did breach the top range of this parallel channel and we'll go back and show you where that began back in January of 2023.

And in doing so, after breaking above, look at this nasty weekly red candle and the price action that's followed since. This has all been bearish consolidation right on top of this parallel channel.

Now, let's flip back on these fib retracement tools and you can see what I'm seeing here on Apple. We've got a very nice potential setup right here under $300, the 618 back to the strongest fib retracement levels.

Why do I pick this level? Because look back here in December 1st of 2025, a previous pivot high that occurred at $28,8862. This fib retracement level is about $5 away from that level.

Both of those combined tell me if we see more further selling pressure, we're likely coming down to this level and could have a decent bounce. The third uh piece of information that tells me that we could come down to this level, well, bare flags produced measured moves, folks.

And what do measured moves give us? They give us a target of where price could go. And you can see what I've just drawn here. That measured move can take price down to 286. Now, I've got three things on this chart telling me price can go down here into this pocket.

If price plunges down into here, that would be even better as we usually see the biggest bounces occur from the sharpest moves to the downside. So, be mindful. Be watching price action under $300 on Apple.

If we do eventually break back within this parallel channel, that value is at 309 and55. Key measured move target down here at 2.8650.

You say what really matters of everything we got today is not this foldable phone, it's not the iPhone 18, it's not the watch, it's not any of that. It is the software update that is coming our way on Monday.

Because it sort of bears out this thesis that I've been putting forth, you know, in the face of much criticism for the last couple of years. And that is that this walled garden that Apple has, what they're now referring to as personal context, is the real value behind what Apple has to offer in AI moving forward.

We're down about 1% right now on Apple stock event finishing here. You could see the typical kind of volatility. Not unusual that on event day the stock goes down. It pretty much happens every time.

And that's also what we said in the alpha report this morning. We're like, bro, it's it goes down every time. [laughter] No guarantees, but it goes down every time afterwards.

Here's my personal reaction on the Apple iPhone Duo and the latest changes to the iPhone Pro 18. This obviously the 17 Pro Max and how they're trying to sort of compete in the iPad Mini space which we happen to have right here.

In my opinion, that's should you buy it and ultimately what is this going to do to Apple's stock? First things first, let's be very clear just up front about Apple stock. I'm not trying to shill this stock.

I think I only have exposure to Apple in my retirement account. It's not even in my main portfolio or my main exposures.

Our tech spotlight is all Apple. The company held its surprising shine product launch event. Oh, it's got to be the new iPhone duo, which I thought they were going to call the iPhone Ultra.

They come out and they called it a duo. It's a new 5.4-in phone that unfolds into what looks like an iPad mini-shaped device from Apple. And that's incredibly exciting. There've been rumors about this for a long time.

The foldable genre has been around for 7 years, give or take. And this is the first time Apple's taken a serious shot at actually uh launching one of their own. So that's incredibly exciting. It's a whole new category for them.

Now your last one I find the most interesting just because of the timing of today's event. You've got Apple as your three in the big three here. How are you looking at Apple?

At some $2,200, I do not love that idea. You know, I'm uh just crazy enough to own just about every Apple product out there. But, uh there's no way I'm paying this $2,200 for a uh for a flip phone.

It's just I think that that's a bit extreme. And you know, I uh uh again, this marketplace in Apple, look uh Rick, I'm not even looking at the chart on this one. I'm fading the flip phone.

That's that's what it comes down to. I'm fading the flip phone. This one's going to be a very very short-term trade. And you know, I've actually seen this with a number of some of the recent product releases from Apple.

So, major product release comes out, the marketplace kind of absorbs it, has a little sellside activity after it. That's really what I'm going after over here. But again, the price increases.

Look, I I you know, I've never said this before, but when it comes to a uh to a phone, a,000 bucks, I can swallow that. Maybe 1,200. Let's get crazy. But when you start talking about $2,000 for a phone, I'm out of the contest at that point.

Uh, with that, I'm going to go out to the SE 18. That's not that far out, right? So, SE 18 is going to be a rather short duration trade. We're not talking zero DTE, but about a week out.

I'm going to be buying the 310 puts, buying the 310 puts, selling the 305 puts again. So, it's just a nice tight $5 wide put spread done for a$140 debit. Just a little sellside activity.

Look, you may see a pop after this announcement, which should actually make this trade even more advantageous to get into, but the uh the truth is I want to fade uh a $2200 flip phone, which uh by the way is uh unfortunately it's a little, you know, too late.

Uh if you haven't looked, uh pretty much everybody out in the Android side already has that. Not saying I'm Android. I'm not going to go that far, but uh I'm not thrilled with the uh the price point on this Apple product.

Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft are under pressure, weighing down the market even as the Nasdaq 100 nears breakeven. But I want to focus on Apple, as it is the subject of today's "Inside Out" segment.

Let's take a look inside Apple and anticipate today's "surprise and shine" event.

Marie, Apple, that's all she didn't even say good morning, just Apple. Good morning, Marie. And Apple is the big story today. Remember, they're going to have their event. We're suspecting they're going to introduce a foldable iPhone, new iPhone 18 models.

How will Apple trade here today? Apple week in the pre-market. Down about a dollar here. We'll see how that shakes out here today.

Apple Apple has the big unveiling today. So this afternoon, we're going to hear about new products from Apple. Supposedly, they have some sort of foldable phone that they're going to be debuting.

That's already in the stock price. That's not If they debut it, that's going to be of no interest to where the stock goes. It's already again been talked about. Everyone's assuming it's going to happen.

If it doesn't happen, that would be the bigger shock.

Let's talk about "Apple". Stocks did not change much in trading before the market opened here. We have an upcoming event ahead of us. Is there any possibility of it being a motivator today?

It appears that a lot of information regarding this event has already leaked to the market. So , who knows if we might get something that hasn't been reported before. This is an event full of surprises and suspense.

The event begins at 10:00 AM Pacific Time , but the market is expecting the launch of the first foldable iPhone, a " bi-fold iPhone," so to speak. The price of this phone is around $2000, and of course some updates are expected for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, with updated camera lenses and software updates, in addition to the possibility of updating the Apple Watch itself.

Therefore, many analysts believe that Apple could actually control about 40% of the foldable phone market . We'll see if that actually happens.

There are many who expect Apple's stock to decline, saying, "This is ridiculous, who would want that?"

As usual, Apple employees feel some nervousness ahead of these events. Therefore, Apple's stock price is currently fluctuating around $315. It is not the cheapest stock at the moment , as it is trading at a price close to 3.7 basis points.

This assumes current earnings per share estimates and annual growth of approximately 9% over the next four years.

and then we will discuss Apple’s $2,000 phone.

I think Apple was on the list,

Ah, " Apple" for example.

On June 20, 2025, we did an episode about "Taff" with me, Michael, Todd Son, and Josh. And Michael, I said that we are at a very critical juncture for Apple.

very critical juncture for Apple. This is a ratio chart that you, Michael, shared in the previous podcast, and I ticked it when that episode aired. It simply shows the price of Apple divided by the SPY index.

Your point of view was that we were facing a very important dividing line , where the question was: "Will Apple collapse and the situation become very bad, or will this be a bounce point?", and that is exactly what happened; It was a reversal point, which, I think, reflects the importance of technical analysis, doesn't it?

I have seen a very important level that the stocks have touched several times and have maintained that line.

Next, we go to Apple. Apple today is trending a little bit lower. So Apple had a big drop on Friday, continuing to drop today. Now the thing to realize about Apple is tomorrow they have their big unveiling event.

Now this is going to be the first big unveiling of new gadgets or products that Apple will be doing since Tim Cook just left. So this is a big one. Now if you look at the price action, the markets so far are not buying the rumor, right?

often times you'll see Apple trend up into an unveiling and then sell off afterwards. Kind of working the opposite here. Now, that could work in the advantage of the stock, meaning that if it continues to sell today into tomorrow's unveiling, we might see a bounceback.

Now, Josh, we know what Tim Cook did. He built a very powerful operating machine and achieved tremendous success in the supply chain. The iPhone has become a part of our daily lives.

What does John Ternos offer that could actually change Apple's future trajectory?

Listen, I'm extremely excited about this . Here's why. John Ternos is a hardware engineer at heart. So, Tim Cook, despite his great success, is a legendary CEO who has taken this company and achieved tremendous growth in its value for himself, shareholders, and others, but I think this is a step towards a new era for Apple. And that's what's happening.

Would it be fair? To say that Apple's history in Mergers and acquisitions It was extremely uneven From your point of view? I think this is accurate. very. As you know, it was Beats Music acquisition Very good, clearly .

But it's impossible Actually, we are evaluating it because We don't know exactly how much The value he created For the shareholders.

Here we find "cash cow" companies such as Apple, Nvidia and Costco.

Now that we know the complete five-step process, let's take a company like Apple, which was once one of Buffett's stocks, and apply this list and process to it to see when it would be a good buy.

The first question that should be asked is: Are Apple's revenues predictable? Well, if you look at the graph of Apple's long-term revenue, you will see that its revenue has been steadily increasing for two decades.

This makes the company's revenues highly predictable. Therefore, we put a "check" mark on this point. The next question is: At what stage of the business cycle does Apple fall?

Specifically, is it in the capital recovery phase? Well, if we input Apple's data into the tool I designed, it becomes quite clear that it is already in the capital recovery phase.

Since we know that it is in the capital recovery phase, it is safe to conduct a complications analysis on Apple. Now, when I look at Apple, the price-to-earnings ratio is highlighted because the company is working at full capacity to generate profits, and therefore this metric is appropriate.

If we look at Apple, it's a great stock, and it has done very well . Warren Buffett was also selling, but you don't look at investing from a stock market perspective. We look at investment from a business ownership perspective.

Well, Apple's earnings are $127 billion, and we have to adjust for stock-based compensation, which means about $150 billion because they spend that on stock. They could give you dividends worth 115 billion if they distributed all the money.

Then there is the growth aspect. How will this amount of 150 billion grow over time? That is your reward as an owner. That's all . Then compare that to the price-to-earnings ratio.

The dividend yield is 2.7% plus , I don't know what the growth will be, maybe 5% on average, and then that might be your long-term return.

Moving on to Apple, the stock was at 318 this week. They have a new CEO and the stock has remained almost unchanged this week. John Ternos is replacing Tim Cook, and he's talking about the launch of the next iPhones, which I think we'll find out the date of within the next week or two.

Yes, September 9th . So, next week you will have an event at Apple called " Surprise and Shine". Follow those events. Those days are always enjoyable. There are always a few surprises.

It's not usually from a hardware perspective, but you see something from a software perspective. Apple Pay was announced at one of these events, so we'll see if Apple has something up its sleeve.

Of course, in addition to the artificial intelligence in " Siri".