Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 对 $AAPL 的判断变化

2026-09-19看跌
《Ben Felix Is Mostly Right, But Where He Isn't Is Extremely Dangerous!!!》
由于内在价值与当前股价之间存在估值差距,应避免投资 AAPL。

他说,所有讲解这些书的课程都是金融上的胡说八道,比如讨论苹果股票的目标价以及如何计算它等等。然后我们进入内在价值学习模型。我们来看苹果股票。我们有利润,有预估增长率、最终乘数以及各项基准;它们之间存在差异。

那么我算出的该股内在价值是 128。股价是 348。

He says that all the courses that explain these books are financial nonsense, such as discussing the target price for Apple stock and how to calculate it, etc. Then we move on to our intrinsic value learning model.

We go to Apple stock. We have the profits. We have the estimated growth, the ultimate multiplier, and the benchmarks; There are differences. My intrinsic value for the stock is then 128. The stock price is 348.

2026-09-05看跌
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AAPL 对于价值投资而言估值过高;当前价格仅能带来个位数回报,因此应等待更低的估值。

如果看苹果,它是一只很棒的股票,而且表现非常好。沃伦·巴菲特也在卖出,但你不应该从股票市场的角度来看待投资。我们是从企业所有权的角度来看待投资的。

If we look at Apple, it's a great stock, and it has done very well . Warren Buffett was also selling, but you don't look at investing from a stock market perspective. We look at investment from a business ownership perspective.

苹果的盈利是1270亿美元,我们必须调整股票薪酬,这意味着大约1500亿美元,因为他们把钱花在股票上。如果他们分配所有资金,他们可以给你价值1150亿美元的股息。然后是增长方面。

这1500亿美元会如何随时间增长?那是你作为所有者的回报。仅此而已。然后将其与市盈率进行比较。股息收益率是2.7%以上,我不知道增长会是多少,也许平均5%,然后那可能是你的长期回报。

Well, Apple's earnings are $127 billion, and we have to adjust for stock-based compensation, which means about $150 billion because they spend that on stock. They could give you dividends worth 115 billion if they distributed all the money.

Then there is the growth aspect. How will this amount of 150 billion grow over time? That is your reward as an owner. That's all . Then compare that to the price-to-earnings ratio.

The dividend yield is 2.7% plus , I don't know what the growth will be, maybe 5% on average, and then that might be your long-term return.