Brian Feroldi 对 $AAPL 的判断变化

2026-09-05看跌
《Warren Buffett: How To Calculate Intrinsic Value》
苹果公司质量高但增长缓慢,当前37倍市盈率的估值过于昂贵,需跌至约每股240美元才具备买入价值。

在这里,我们找到了像苹果、英伟达和好市多这样的“现金牛”公司。

Here we find "cash cow" companies such as Apple, Nvidia and Costco.

既然我们已经了解了完整的五步流程,让我们以苹果公司为例,它曾经是巴菲特持有的股票之一,并将这个清单和流程应用于它,看看何时才是好的买入时机。首先应该问的问题是:苹果的收入是否可预测?

如果你看一下苹果长期收入的图表,你会发现其收入在过去二十年中一直在稳步增长。这使得公司的收入高度可预测。因此,我们在这一点上打上“勾”。下一个问题是:苹果处于商业周期的哪个阶段?

具体来说,它是否处于资本回收阶段?如果我将苹果的数据输入到我设计的工具中,就会很清楚它已经处于资本回收阶段。既然我们知道它处于资本回收阶段,那么对苹果进行并发症分析是安全的。现在,当我审视苹果时,市盈率被突出显示,因为公司正在满负荷运转以产生利润,因此这个指标是合适的。

Now that we know the complete five-step process, let's take a company like Apple, which was once one of Buffett's stocks, and apply this list and process to it to see when it would be a good buy.

The first question that should be asked is: Are Apple's revenues predictable? Well, if you look at the graph of Apple's long-term revenue, you will see that its revenue has been steadily increasing for two decades.

This makes the company's revenues highly predictable. Therefore, we put a "check" mark on this point. The next question is: At what stage of the business cycle does Apple fall?

Specifically, is it in the capital recovery phase? Well, if we input Apple's data into the tool I designed, it becomes quite clear that it is already in the capital recovery phase.

Since we know that it is in the capital recovery phase, it is safe to conduct a complications analysis on Apple. Now, when I look at Apple, the price-to-earnings ratio is highlighted because the company is working at full capacity to generate profits, and therefore this metric is appropriate.