TBF's Inverse Bond Track Record
Analyst's reasoning:I’m staying short bonds, and the inverse instrument TBF is behaving consistently with that setup, moving lower over the last three weeks and continuing to drift in the intended direction. The lack of reversal signs makes this inverse-trade posture look aligned for now.
Analyst's reasoning:Bonds are essentially flat on the day, but the trend shows a third-week lower-low progression. Since TBF is the inverse of the bond move, that setup supports staying cautiously constructive rather than fully aggressive.
Analyst's reasoning:TBF is described as moving higher over the prior three weeks and spiking nicely today. The thesis directly depends on continued weakness in long-dated Treasuries, since TBF’s daily inverse mechanics can amplify outcomes if the direction persists.
Analyst's reasoning:TBF is highlighted as an actionable way to express the short-in-bonds thesis without relying solely on puts. The speaker notes TBF has been moving up over the last three weeks and “spiking up quite nicely” today, though inverse fees and daily recalibration raise execution risk.
Analyst's reasoning:TBF has been cranking up over the last four weeks, explicitly positioned as the short of the 20-year U.S. government bonds that moves opposite TLT on the same percentage basis. Higher-management-cost and daily revaluation effects are the key risks to the trade’s path dependency.
Analyst's reasoning:TBF’s recent strength is attributed directly to its inverse structure versus the 20-year Treasury bond move. The speaker emphasizes the symmetric relationship: when TLT is down for the day by about 0.12%, TBF is set up to be up by about 0.12%, while noting the higher costs and amplified loss risk.
Analyst's reasoning:The inverse TBF position is described as “going well” as TLT pulls back and “hammering down.” This view depends on Treasuries continuing to fall; a reversal in TLT would quickly hurt the inverse trade.
Analyst's reasoning:TBF is called out as “going well” as TLT pulls back and keeps hammering down. The setup depends on the inverse trade continuing to benefit if the rates weakness persists.
Analyst's reasoning:Bond prices are trending down today and the level is slightly lower versus last week, supporting the “moving in the right direction” short posture. The downside isn’t a hammer-style crash, so the thesis is more about steady drift than an abrupt break.
Analyst's reasoning:Bond prices bounced on the day as the US 10-year yield pulled back toward about 4.58%, easing rate fears. The strategy stays short via TBF, since the KOL views the move as a temporary breather rather than a sustained reversal.
- 5/13BULL
- 5/13BEAR
- 5/14BULL
- 5/20BEAR
- 5/20BULL