base case: oil drifts to pre-war ~$60 absent escalation.
Absent a major re-escalation, the oil market will calm and drift to pre-war prices near $60.
The KOL's base case is no major re-escalation in Lebanon or beyond. Under that scenario, the geopolitical risk premium will fade, and oil will return to pre-war levels near $58-60. The market has already shown lower highs on recent spikes, indicating growing elasticity and resilience.