insurance growth stalled, risking 2025 guidance misses.
BN’s future return outlook is deteriorating because insurance growth is flat, making 2025 guidance—and longer-term guidance—look likely to miss.
Insurance (wealth solutions) produced earnings of about $430 million with no year-over-year growth, and the organic insurance growth has been very low for multiple quarters. Hitting prior multi-year targets would require an unrealistically high re-acceleration of roughly 31–32% annually, so valuation becomes harder to justify.