InvestAnswersANALYSTAug 2, 2026“Tesla's multiple S-curves are still in the slow phase with a bonkers back-half 2026 ramp expected, backed by vertical integration and a 20-line-of-business moat.”
Why he says it — point by point
FAVORABLE & AGAINST · BOTH KEPTWhy
we have a whole bunch of S curves hitting at the same time. It's slowly then suddenly. We're still in the slowly phase. We expected the back half of 2026 to be bonkers.
they can refine their own lithium and build their own LFP batteries on the ground and avoid all tariffs. Nobody else can do that, okay?
Building their own 4680 cells, they used to have to buy battery cells from Panasonic and others, they don't do that anymore. Lithium refining, AI 5 chips, the actuators and Optimus, they've all designed and built themselves.
20 distinct high margin business lines. Think of each one of these as complementing each other and think of each one of these as a moat that nobody else can compete with.
the exponential growth is coming. My thesis has not changed. It continues to be extremely positive.
Risk
I was referring to near-term timing and volatility around the cybercab ramp.
Yes, it's taking a bit longer. We expected the back half of 2026 to be bonkers. We're now starting the second month of the last 6 months. And it hasn't kicked off yet.
The structured call
The receipt
Publish-day price $$311.21 · the claim is anchored to the moment it was said.