← BACK TO $ASML
$ASMLBear claim
Joseph Carlson After HoursJoseph Carlson After HoursANALYSTJul 15, 2026
The claim

“ASML is priced to perfection with a ~46x forward PE — despite blowout earnings and strong fundamentals, the stock's momentum is thin and it's failing to react, suggesting limited near-term upside.”

Why he says it — point by point

FAVORABLE & AGAINST · BOTH KEPT

Why

I believe that the momentum in these semiconductor stocks is getting rather thin. I believe that investors have already priced in a lot of the growth. It smells a situation where that cliche phrase price to perfection probably applies here.

Right here we have it at a 46 or 44 forward PE. Even on next year's estimates it's at a 38.

Year-to-date the stock is up 50%.

support · 50%

I've been trimming my position. I did this one at $1,918.

Risk

It has an indisputable moat. It has a monopoly on its product and it's super profitable and it's growing fast.

The structured call

Direction
Bearish
Catalyst
—
Target
—

The receipt

YouTube · 5:405:40

“ASML is priced to perfection with a ~46x forward PE — despite blowout earnings and strong fundamentals, the stock's momentum is thin and it's failing to react, suggesting limited near-term upside.”

From "Why The Market’s Not Reacting To The Biggest Earnings"
Open the source at 5:40 →

Publish-day price $$1,815.27 · the claim is anchored to the moment it was said.

OTHER SIDEOn this thesis, 1 analyst holds the bull case. A claim is never a recommendation; here's who disagrees.See the opposing claims →

Others who hold the bear side

2 ON THIS THESIS

The same direction, argued differently — each is its own claim with its own clip.

Jose Najarro StocksJose Najarro StocksANALYST

“ASML is overvalued at a 46x forward PE relative to its historical median of 32x, making it unattractive to buy at current levels.”

5:40Jose Najarro StocksJose Najarro StocksANALYST

“ASML's expensive forward PE relative to its historical median makes it unattractive at current levels.”

5:40

Joseph Carlson After Hours on $ASML, over time

Full profile →

How this voice has moved on the ticker. We flag contradictions — as behavior, never a score.

This is the only tracked claim from this analyst on the ticker so far.

This receipt is public & free — always.
The full stance archive and CSV export are part of your trial.
This is a record of what one analyst said on one thesis, with the clip — not a recommendation, not a verdict, not a score. The opposing case is linked above.