“GOOGL can double to $1,000 by 2028 driven by massive AI capex, TPU cost advantage, and compute-to-revenue conversion, with low PE 27 — though Gemini lags and supply chain/government risks exist.”
Why he says it — point by point
FAVORABLE & AGAINST · BOTH KEPTWhy
They have more demand for compute than they have available supply.
Google may spend close to $200 billion this year on capex which is investing in things like data centers.
This saves them money because they're not paying Nvidia margins and they're able to get chips that are customized for their use cases.
If you sell tokens for less money, but not that much less money, you turn that $30 billion or so that SpaceX is getting on its 1 gawatt of compute into $200 billion in revenue on 2 gawatt of higher performance compute.
a near doubling or a doubling of revenue for Google in about 2 years The stock is not priced for that. the price earnings ratio is 27.
Their price earnings ratio is 27. That's relatively low for a fast growing company.
Google has massive amounts of data, has massive amounts of compute
Google, Nvidia, TSMC, ASML are the safest havens because they're not overpriced.
Risk
Gemini has been struggling against open AI and anthropic and maybe in third or fourth place in the frontier models.
supply chain is the biggest near-term risk government is the biggest long-term risk
The structured call
The receipt
Publish-day price $$359.91 · the claim is anchored to the moment it was said.