“PLTR is still set up for a $1 trillion valuation as a conservative outcome, supported by 93% revenue growth and accelerating commercial expansion.”
Why he says it — point by point
FAVORABLE & AGAINST · BOTH KEPTWhy
we got revenue of 1.94 billion. That's a 93% growth. We've got adjusted EPS at .41 beating by 17%.
We got US commercial 764 million up 150%. We got rule of 40 of 155 operating margin of 62%.
We got US commercial remaining deal value of 6.2 billion up 124%.
the switching cost out of Palunteer are literally not surmountable, impossible.
Commercial revenue is at 149% growth.
A reverse calculation shows you that a terminal PE of 2030 of 40 gives us 61% revenue growth in order to hit that target.
the $1 trillion case is not a case for acceleration. It's a case that's built on Palunteer decelerating revenue growth.
what I'm doing, I'll tell you exactly. You have to follow two simple rules with Palunteer
Risk
Palunteer has one of the biggest, if not the biggest keyman risk in the entire stock market. If Alex Karp leaves, I don't think this company is worth a lot. It has obviously the pricing issue. If all of a sudden everybody piles into Palunteer, takes it up to $600 per share in two years. Yeah, that might be a problem What if commercial growth slows down? What if government slows down? Right? That could happen.
The structured call
The receipt
Publish-day price $$162.66 · the claim is anchored to the moment it was said.