Solving The Money ProblemANALYSTAug 4, 2026“TSLA's Optimus and autonomy lines grow into pillars dwarfing the legacy car business over two decades, backed by a 55% FSD take rate.”
Why he says it — point by point
FAVORABLE & AGAINST · BOTH KEPTWhy
Tesla's autonomy and robotics businesses have grown from nearly nothing into pillars that dwarf the old car company.
For Tesla it is Optimus.
we recently learned with Tesla Q2 North America a 55% take rate on FSD for new vehicles sold in the US
Risk
typically I'm overly optimistic on timing and scale, so let's try and counterbalance that.
What would flip this
if you don't agree, if you think Optimus is going to be a total flop or there will be no demand for AI comput, you can literally go in the model, at least if it's editable, reduce the assumptions massively or just zero them out completely.
The structured call
The receipt
Publish-day price $$327.35 · the claim is anchored to the moment it was said.