TLT 这一页 10 条观点条目，其中 2 条方向发生变化。
如果看TLT的技术面，TLT目前处于——其平均久期约为25年期债券的水平。如果看TLT的周线图，你会发现TLT正处于这个近乎辉煌的底部。
If you look at the technicals on TLT, TLT is sitting which which is an average duration about 25-year bond. If you look at the weekly chart of TLT, you'll find that TLT is at this nearly glorious bottom.
所以，我已经把美国国债的空头做到了极致。我做空 TLT、Zeros、ZROZ、LQD，也就是投资级信用债，还有高收益信用债 HYG、Jojo，后者算是个装腔作势的基金经理。
So, like I'm I'm as short treasuries as you can be. I'm short TLT, Zeros, ZROZ, LQD, which is investment grade credit, high yield credit, HYG, Jojo, which is kind of like a poser manager.
最后是TLT债券，我们知道它们的情况，对吧？当10年期债券收益率达到5%时，我们触及了新的历史低点，而现在我们正试图回升至该水平之上。因此，许多人认为5%可能代表一段时期的最高水平，这或许是真的，但我们将关注的是短期内会发生什么。
在我们看到这轮上涨的地方，似乎已经开始形成一个上行形态，但我们以前见过这种情况，不是吗？一路上，即便TLT继续录得更低的高点和低点，我们也看到看涨形态反复形成，而突破要么在这里根本不存在，要么在6月仅持续了几天，随后在8月持续了更短的时间。
这表明我们应当非常清楚这样一个事实：TLT有时会——或者说过去曾经会——在它开始反弹、看起来不错、看起来突破会强劲得多的时候，抛售又回来了，收益率又开始上升。
And finally, TLT bonds, we know what's going on with them, right? We hit a new historic low when the 10-year bond yield reached 5%, and we are now trying to get back above that.
Therefore, many believe that 5% may represent the highest level for a period, and that may be true, but what we will be watching is what happens in the short term. Where we have seen this rise, it seems that an upward pattern has begun to form, but we have seen this before, haven't we?
Along the way, even as TLT continued to record lower highs and lows, we saw a repetition of bullish patterns forming, where breakouts were either nonexistent here, lasting only a few days in June, and then for a shorter period in August.
This shows that we should be very aware of the fact that TLT sometimes does, or has done in the past, when it starts to bounce back, and looks good, when it looks like the breakout will be much stronger, then the selling comes back, and yields start to rise again.
这就是为什么我现在看债券市场。如果你看TLT或债券，它本质上就是标普500的看跌期权，还带有正carry、没有时间损耗，只是在等着一个触发因素。
And that's why I look at a bond market right now. If you look at TLT or bonds is basically it's essentially a a put on the S&P 500 with positive carry, no time decay, and it's just, you know, waiting around for a trigger.
接下来，Don，你今天又给我们带来了一个看涨的交易，尽管全球债券遭到抛售，但你看涨iShares TLT债券ETF。那么，请解释一下这里的论点，以及你预计债券在未来几周会如何表现。
Now, next, Don, you've brought us another bullish deal today, and you're bullish on the iShares TLT bond ETF , despite the global sell-off in bonds. So, explain the thesis here and what you expect the bonds to behave over the coming weeks.
全球债券抛售？这正是利用这种价格变动的时机。债券义警可能会出现在债券世界有一些抛售活动的地方。看，我非常关注期货产品。我在观察“ZN”，这当然是10年期国债合约。我在观察ZB，这是30年期国债。TLT可以说是两者的一个非常好的组合。
Global bond sales? This is the right time to take advantage of this type of price movement . Bond vigilantes may appear where there is some selling activity in the bond world. Look , I focus a lot on futures products.
I am watching "ZN", which of course are 10-year Treasury bond contracts. I am watching ZB, which is a 30-year Treasury bond . TLT is a very good combination , so to speak, of both.
我们将看到，TLT 长期债券将继续承压并下跌。
we're going to see you know tips we're going to see uh like TLT long-term bonds continue to be under pressure and move down
所以，1 2 3 4。是的，7月24日。所以，你看到这些正在滚动下行，而TLT和TLH实际上，你知道，IEF也开始略有改善。所以，我把它们排名为这些是蓝色，这些是橙色。但如果我们现在向前滚动，你可以看到在过去几个月里，情况迅速改变了。
所以，现在较长端，尤其是TLT和TLH，明显是跑输者。
So, 1 2 3 4. Yeah, July 24. So, you saw that these were rolling over and TLT and TLH were actually, you know, IEF as well starting to improve a little bit. So, I had them ranked like these were blue and these were orange.
But if we scroll forward now, you can see that picture really rapidly changed over the last couple of months. So, now the longer end, especially TLT and TLH, are clear underperformers.
如果你是TLT的投资者，这是iShares旗下非常受欢迎的长期国债ETF，你在2010年代以每年近8%的正复合增长率复利增长。这是一个非常赚钱的投资。在2020年代，由于实际利率从负值飙升至非常正值，你的复合年增长率在这十年至今为负4.4%。
If you were an investor in TLT, which is a very popular longdated treasury bond ETF out of EyesShares, you compounded at almost 8% a year positive through the 2010s. It was a very good money-making investment.
In the 2020s, because real rates have exploded from being negative to being very positive, your kager, your compound annual growth rate over this decade so far has been negative 4.4%.
人们抛售美国国债，原因有两个。一是因为通胀高企，所以他们预计在某个时点美联储可能不得不加息以抑制通胀，而每次我们看到伊朗局势进一步升级，油价进一步上涨，这都会传导到TLT受到打击，利率上升。
Uh people are selling down Treasuries really for for two reasons. One, because inflation is high, so they're expecting that at a certain point that the Fed may have to hike in order to tamper down inflation and every time we see further escalation in Iran, further move higher in the price of oil, that is transferring through to the TLT getting hit and and rates moving higher.
债券，债券刚刚遭到重创，我认为发生的情况是，财政部长说：“让空头舒服几天，然后我们会进去说些什么，我们会试图打击那些卖空者。”
The bonds, the bonds just got you know, they were they were getting hammered, and what I think happened in there is the Treasury Secretary said, "Let the shorts feel comfortable for a few days, then we'll go in and say something, and we'll we'll try to torch the short sellers."
他们确实这么做了，但随后其他人回来说：“等等，我们为什么要回补空头？让我们重新加上空头。”或者那些空头是加上的？
Which they did, but then other people came back in and said, "Wait a minute, why did we cover our shorts? Let's add that short back on." Or are those shorts added to it?
