SPY 这一页 20 条观点条目，其中 1 条方向发生变化。
事实上，事实上，SPY 再次处于看跌趋势。对。再一次，我们看看它能不能守住。10 现在位于 20 之下。10 在 20 之下。价格在 50 之下。这从类别上、从数学上、无可争辩地就是一个看跌趋势。
In fact, in fact, we have a bearish trend on the spy once again. Right. Once again, let's see if it holds. The 10 is now under the 20. 10's under the 20. Price is under the 50.
That is ca categorically, mathematically, unjubitably a bearish trend.
我们看到spiders下跌了46%。不是巨大的暴跌，但仍在图表上承压下行。你会注意到，今天我们确实收在了此前历史最高枢轴之下。这个由图表上一条水平趋势线标示的水平，一直是本月9月开始最近这波下跌的支撑区域。
现在，我们最近在9月10日跌破了它。昨天我们再次跌破，但尽力反击并收在其上方。今天则没能守住。不得不进一步下推。
We got the spiders down 46%. Not a big tremendous fall, but still pushing down on the charts. You notice today we did close underneath this previous all-time high pivot. This level illustrated by a horizontal trend line on your charts has been the area of support for the most recent declines that we saw starting this month in September.
Now, we've breached it most recently September 10th. We breached it again yesterday, but did our best to fight and get above it to close. Now, today couldn't hold on. Had to push down lower.
标普500指数不受影响，因为它正处于AI泡沫之中。
The S&P 500 is unaffected because it is in an AI bubble.
如果没有这个AI泡沫，标普500的盈利不会达到300，因为考虑到AI的情况、熵调整、OpenAI，这些盈利是虚假的。假设在合理衰退的情况下，现在盈利会是200，乘以合理的市盈率15，也就是历史平均水平。那么标普现在会在3,000点。
Without this AI bubble, S&P 500 earnings would not be at 300 because those are fake given the AI situation, the entropic adjustments, open AI. Let's say those with a fair recession would be at 200 now times a fair P ratio of 15, which is the historical average. The S&P now would be at 3,000.
然后突然之间，你必须知道，我们在区间中的什么位置，spies在哪里，它是守住756还是跌破756？
Then all of a sudden you have to know, you know, where we are in the range, where are the spies, you know, is it holding 756 or is it breaking 756?
这是spy。我们从开盘就直接下跌。值得注意的是，我们正直接穿过VWAP。
Uh here's this spy. So we sold off right from the open. What's notable about this is that we are going right through the VWAP.
顺便看一下 SPY。开盘后出现了一波回落，随后重新收复了 VWAP。可以看到它并没有完全收复那条粉色或品红色的线，那就是 9 EMA。这就是交易零日到期期权时这个机器人的样子。
所以这里的这波回落和反弹，有点像是假动作，目前还没有真正站上那个位置。我就把它称作 760。所以目前这里还没有交易。我们现在实际上已经进入了交易窗口一。看看能不能触发，但到目前为止情况就是这样。
Um, by the way, looking at SPY here. So, we had that pull out of the open. We had a recapture of VWAP. You'll see it did not quite recapture the pink or the magenta line there.
That's going to be your 9 EMA. That's what the bot looks like for trading zero DTE. So, this pull and bounce here, a little bit of a head fake. Did not quite get above that se at this point.
I'm just going to call it 760. So, uh, no trades here yet. We're actually in the trade one window now. We'll see if we get it, but um, that's where we're at here so far.
那么，我们直接开始吧，各位，先看日线时间框架上的标普500指数。可以看到，今天我们的收盘位置非常漂亮地落在前历史高点下方。正如你们在这里看到的，我们在周四就是这样收的。周五给了我们一点喘息，把价格重新推回到这个前历史高点枢轴上方，但今天我们又收在了它上方。
主要是，你们可以看到，最后那根10分钟K线帮助把价格推回到更接近那条趋势线的位置。但今天当我们确实开在那条趋势线下方时，可以看到我们向上推升，用几根不同的10分钟K线尝试突破那条趋势线，遭到拒绝，然后最终在午盘前后以更轻的成交量推了过去，随后又一路回落。
它并没有一路回落到那条趋势线。但最重要的是，它重新收在了它上方，和昨天很像。所以现在，有了这次下探和上周的下探，它本质上把图表清零了，我们明天从这个关键水平、这条底线重新开始。
基本上，这条位于76040美元的趋势线是标普500指数的近期支撑。我提醒你们，我们在这里触及过它，在这里跌破过它，今天又多次触及它。所以这正在削弱这个支撑水平，但无论如何，近期这就是支撑水平。
再往下的下一个水平大约在755，也就是标普500指数7月这些枢轴的高端区间。
So, let's jump right into it, guys, with the S&P 500 first on the daily time frame. You can see here today we were closing very nicely underneath the previous all-time highs. Now, we did that as you see here back on Thursday.
Friday gave us a little bit of a relief, pushed us right back above this previous all-time high pivot, but then today we actually closed back above it. And mainly, you can see here the last 10-minute candle helped push price back closer to that trend line.
But when we did open up underneath that trend line today, you could see we pushed up, made a few different 10-minute candle attempts to break that trend line, got rejected, and then ultimately pushed through with lighter volume towards the middle of the day than since rolled right back over.
Didn't come all the way back down to that trend line. But most thing is important, it closed back above it, much like it did yesterday. So right now with this dip and last week's dip, it in essence is xed off the chart and we start again tomorrow with this key level, this line in the sand.
Basically this trend line at $76040 is the near-term support for the S&P 500. I'm remind you we've hit it here, breached it here, and are hitting it several times today. So this is weakening this level of support, but nonetheless, near-term that is the level of support.
Next level beyond that is going to be right around 755 the top end range of these pivots back here from July on the S&P 500.
最后，我们在这里要做的是看看标普500指数的股市展望。又到了周五，2026年9月11日。显然我们看到了一个非常区间震荡的市场，甚至在社交媒体上也能看到，人们在低点变得非常看空，在高点又非常看多。
这正是我们目前真正所处的交易区间。这就是为什么在本周早些时候的发言中，我真的很想专注于观察日线时间框架上那些EMA的整体状况，帮助你过滤信号与噪音。对吧？如果你只跟随价格、只是盯着价格看，有时你就会忽略真正正在发生的事情，对吧？
所以要设法简化你所看的东西，这样你所看到的就是一个更简化的矩阵，而不是我们所能获取的所有那些输入。这些年来变化很大的一件事就是，我们拥有的外部输入越来越多，有时会模糊我们的判断。
对吧？所以为了简化这一点，你必须去看、去问这样一个问题：在这种情况下，这里真正重要的是什么？很多时候你会发现，试着剥离掉你所看的大量内容、简化你所看的东西，实际上能带来更清晰的判断，而我认为这一点非常重要。
你知道，这些年来你也在其他交易者身上看到过，随着他们不断进化，对吧，他们所看的东西往往不会变得更复杂，实际上会变得更简单。所以这是我请大家认真审视并理解的一点：如果这是让你被反复折腾的一周，那就去理解并看看为什么会这样，以及未来你能做些什么来学习和成长，对吧，每一个机会都会创造成长的机会。
如果我们抱着这种心态，如果我们从受害者的心态去看待它，那我们就处在完全不同的阵营里，我们不太可能真正看到交易上有任何有意义的改变。明白吗？每一天都给我们一个机会，而抓住这个机会是我们的职责。
我们可能不会立刻看到改变，但如果你持续地寻找交易中及交易周围的机会来成长和发展，对吧，这会随着时间复利累积，并给你的整体交易表现带来更多、更有意义的阶跃式变化。所以，这是我认为在这里非常重要的一点。
那么，让我们继续，跳进这张标普图表。我们将像往常一样看看我们的周线和日线周期分析。这就是我们对标普的周线和日线周期分析，当然左边是Slim MCM。正如你在中期所看到的，它现在是中性的。
而在短期，它略微偏空。让我们现在跳到图表里。你在这里看到的是，标普有一个低点预计在8月10日到9月14日左右。RS仍然是正的。整体转换也非常非常强。我们已经下移到这个区域，从7596到大约7527，到目前为止它守住了，而且这是一个非常强的转换，确实表明在年底之前、随着我们进入下一个上升阶段，我们很可能仍会看到新高。
如果我们现在跳到短期，本周早些时候我强调过，找到能帮助我们简化所看内容的东西非常重要，其中之一就是slim ribbon。我喜欢问这样一个问题：我们在那些EMA上是向上平行吗？
是向下平行，还是实际上走平？而这里确实是一个非常走平的情况。所以，这不是一个非常偏空的左侧转换。这是一个非常反复折腾的转换，我们在这个7638的低点下方没有看到多少跟随。你有一个短期低点在9月14日到9月23日左右。
RS一直在下行，但同样，是一个中性的ribbon。我们看到一系列略微更低的高点和更低的低点。但你知道，这当然又是一次磨人的过程，一个预计在9月14日到9月23日的低谷。在7530附近有一个斐波那契位。
你现在有周四这个7580的旧低点。而上行方面，如果我们开始突破这些旧高点，这里在7771，那么显然那会比任何其他情况都更偏正面。目前市场是非常中性的立场，这就是为什么我认为专注于市场环境并与之保持同步极其重要。
如果你不这样做，如果你不关注一个转换究竟是强还是弱，你可能会在低点附近变得过度看空，或在高点附近变得过度看多。这是一个非常反复折腾的转换。再加上，你有一个走平的EMA，对吧？这种组合真的意味着到处都是陷阱。
And finally, what we are going to do here is look at the stock market outlook for the S&P 500. It is Friday again, September 11, 2026. Obviously we have seen a very rangebound market uh seeing just even on social media uh folks getting very bearish at lows and very bullish at highs.
There in lies the trading range that we are really operating in right now. Um, that's why in future speak earlier this week, I was really trying to hone in uh on seeing the overall condition of those EMAs on the daily time frame to help you to filter the signals from the noise.
Right? If you're uh if you're only following price and simply staring at price, you are losing sight of what is really happening sometimes, right? So trying to find ways to simplify what you look at so that way what you are looking at is a more simplified matrix as opposed to all of those inputs that we could have access to.
So one of the things that has changed a lot over the years is we just have more and more external inputs that are at times clouding our judgment. Right? So in order to simplify that you have to look and see and and just ask the question what really matters here right in situations like this what really matters and often times what you will find is trying to strip down a lot of what you're looking at and simplify what you're looking at can actually lead to greater clarity and that is something I think that is very important And you know you've seen it with other traders over the years as they evolve right what they look at often times doesn't get more complicated it actually gets simpler uh so that is something that you know I would ask everyone to look hard at and understand if this was a week which you got really chopped understand and look at why that happened and what you can do in the future to learn and grow right every opportunity uh creates an opportunity for growth.
If we are in that mindset for it, if we look at it from a victim mindset, then we're in a whole another camp uh where we are unlikely to really see any meaningful change uh in our trading.
Okay? Every day gives us an opportunity and it's our job to seize that opportunity. We may not see change right away, but if you are consistent and finding opportunities and areas in and around trading for growth and development, right, that can compound over time and lead to more to more meaningful step changes uh in your overall trading performance.
So, that's something that I think is very important here. So, let's go ahead and uh jump into this S&P chart. We're going to look at our weekly and daily cycle analysis uh as usual.
And this is our weekly and daily cycle analysis for the S&P with of course the Slim MCM on the left here. As you're seeing on the intermediate term, it is now neutral. And in the short term, uh it is slightly bearish.
Let's go ahead and hop over now into the charts. And what you're seeing here is that there's a low that is due 810 to around 914 uh in the S&P. The RS is still positive. The overall translations are also very very strong.
We have moved down to this zone here uh from 7596 to around 7527 and so far that is holding uh and uh this is a very strong translation which does indicate that we are likely to see still new highs coming prior to year end as we get out into this next rising phase here.
If we jump over to the short term now earlier this week I highlighted that it is very important to find things that can help us to simplify what we are looking at and um one of those is the slim ribbon.
I like to ask the question are we in parallel to the upside in those EMAs? Are we in parallel to the downside or are we really flat and this is really a very flat situation here.
So, this is not a very bearish left-hand translation. This is a very choppy one where we have not seen a lot of follow-through below this low at 7638. You have a short-term low 914 to around 923.
The RS has been down, but again, a neutral ribbon. We are seeing a series of slightly lower highs and lower lows. But uh you know certainly this is a grind again a trough that is due 914 to 923.
There is a fib right around 7530. You now have this old low here from Thursday at 7580. And on the upside if we start moving through these old highs here at 70 at 7771 well obviously that would be more positive than anything else. right now very neutral stance uh in the market and that's why I think it is super important to hone in on market environment and staying attuned to that.
If you don't uh and you aren't following how either strong or weak a translation is, you may get caught getting overly bearish towards lows or overly bullish towards highs. This is a very choppy translation.
Plus, you have a flat EMA, right? That combination really spells traps all over the place.
先从标普说起。目前标普上涨约 1%，回补了周二价格走势留下的缺口。这对市场来说相当不错，因为我们正开始有可能尝试测试标普此前的历史高点。
Let's start with the S&P. Now, the S&P is currently up about 1%, filling the gap created from Tuesday's price action. This is pretty good for the markets as we're beginning to potentially try and test previous all-time highs on the S&P.
我在关注什么？我在关注那个双顶 779 37，这是关键的阻力位。但有一点我特别想强调，我们开始看到这条下行倾斜的平行通道呈现出一种漂亮的形态。你甚至可以把它看作牛旗，因为我们先有这一波漂亮的上涨，随后是向下横盘的整理，倾向于向上突破。
What am I watching? I'm watching that double top 779 37, the key level of resistance. But something I really want to highlight there is we're starting to create kind of a beautiful look at this downs sloping parallel channel.
Um you can even consider this a bull flag because we had this nice move up followed by this downward sideways um downward sideways consolidation favoring a move to the upside.
好，我们开始吧。来看一下我们的SPY图表。我们之前已经多次谈到这个横盘形态或者说横盘震荡。我们确实回到了区间底部。我知道我们曾跌破760，但今天，至少从这里的跳空高开来看，今天看起来确实会重新收复该位置。
所以，第一，关键在于我们能否真正收在75857上方？我们现在交易在该位置上方，这很好。我们现在位于该位置上方，这很好，但我们真正想要的是收在该位置上方。我们还把目光投向20日移动均线，我们其实一直在它附近来回震荡，有时交易在其上方，有时把它当作阻力、交易在其略下方。
但今天它就在眼前。如果我们向上交易到该水平，76677应该是上方阻力。如果我们能收在该位置上方，那就太好了。如果我把图表稍微缩小一点，涵盖大概整个夏季，大约从4月底或4月初开始。
你可以看到我们的成交量控制点仍然在下方740这里。所以我很想交易得更高一些。我很想或许突破创出历史新高。但如果我们还没准备好这么做，最终又回落进来，那么740也值得放在你的雷达上。
不是今天，而是未来如果我们确实交易走低时另一个可能的反弹位置。
All right, let's do it. Let's take a look at our SPY chart. Now, we've talked a lot about the sideways formation or the sideways trading. We did come back into the bottom of the range.
I know we dipped beneath that 760, but today, at least with the gap up here, it sure looks like we're going to recapture that today. So, number one, the key is going to be, can we actually close above 75857?
It's great that we're trading above that now. Uh, it's great that we're peing above that, but really we want to close above that. We also have our sights set on the 20-day moving average, which we've really kind of been oscillating around, sometimes kind of trading above, sometimes using it as resistance and trading a little bit below it.
But that is on deck here today. 76677 should be upside resistance if we trade up towards that level. If we can uh close above that, that would be excellent. If I back the chart out a little bit here to encompass um maybe the entire summer about since what the end of or beginning of April here.
Um you can see that our volume point of control is still down here at 740. So I'd love to trade a little bit higher. I'd love to maybe break out to a new all-time high. But if we're just not ready to do that yet and we do end up coming back in, it's also worth keeping 740 on your radar.
Not for today, but for another possible bounce spot in the future if we do in fact trade lower.
我可以看出SPY上正在形成看跌趋势。10日线现在位于20日线下方。价格现在位于50日线下方。
I can see a bearish trend starting on the SPY. The 10 is now under the 20. Price is now under the 50.
首先看标普500指数与SPY日线ETF。正如我所说，我们确实下跌了近0.5%。收盘脱离了低点，这在短期内是令人鼓舞的，因为我们并没有下跌并触及760.40美元这一支撑位。
First off, the S&P 500 with the SPY daily ETF. We did come down, as I said, nearly half a percent. Finished off the lows, which is encouraging here near-term because we did not come down and hit this level of support, $760.40.
相反，我们跌到了760。我们跌到了760.94美元。现在来看10分钟图。可以看到，在Bent发表评论之后，我们非常接近触及该水平，因为今天市场确实很平静。
Instead, we got down to 760. Uh, we got down to $760.94. Now, let's look at the 10-minute chart. You can see we got very close to hitting that level right after Bent's comments because today we were really quiet.
标普500，这一只出现了轻微的IDSS下跌。我认为这只会是一次疲弱的回调，而不是彻底的洗盘。再说一次，昨天非常有意思。所有I13都在大涨。每一个都是，包括比特币之类的东西。而标普500却在下跌。
所以，这意味着人们在卖出传统名字、传统股票。我不跟踪它们。我现在要跟踪的东西已经够多了。但这是Q's和标普500之间一次有意思的背离。
S&P 500, this one has had a mild IDSS dip. And it's going to be just a I think a weak pullback rather than a total wash out. Again, it was very interesting yesterday. All of the I13 were on fire.
Every single one, including things like Bitcoin, etc. And the S&P 500 was down. So, that means people are selling the traditional names, traditional stocks. I don't track them.
I've got enough to track right now. But this was an interesting divergence between the Q's and the S&P 500.
首先看SPY日线ETF上的标普500指数，价格走势下跌了约0.55%，而且正如你在这里看到的高点枢轴，今天根本没有机会转绿。我们没有高开，而是低开，然后在一天的大部分时间里抛售。
First off with the S&P 500 on the SPY daily ETF that we see here, price action came down about 0.55% and really, as you see here with the high pivot, never had an opportunity to go green today.
We didn't gap up, instead we gap down and then sold off for the majority of the day.
切换到10分钟图，你看这里我们开盘后下跌，试图走高，但在标普500指数下跌之后，那差不多就是我们能达到的最高点了。收盘时出现糟糕的抛售，一根漂亮的影线将价格拉回，但这个价格走势实际上确实在当天创出了近期盘中低点来收盘。
Flipping over to the 10-minute chart, you see here we opened up, came down, made an attempt to go up higher, but that was about as high as we were getting after that decline on the S&P 500.
Nasty end of the day sell, a nice wick pulling price back up, but this price action did actually make a near uh term intraday low on the day to close out.
也许在SPY上看得更清楚。在跌破失败后出现了令人难以置信的上涨。这是SPY的日线图。20日均线走平，所以我不认为它会真的继续上涨。我预计会先出现一些来回波动。
You can see it better maybe in the spy. Just an unbelievable move up after a breakdown failure. This is the daily chart of the spy. The 20 MA is flat, so I'm not expecting it to really keep going. I'm expecting some back and forth first.
标普 500 指数从区间顶部的关键支撑位反弹。我们之前讨论过这一点。我认为重要的是，如果市场要下跌，它必须放弃突破时的全部涨幅，但它触及了该支撑位，然后上涨了。
S&P 500 bounced from a key top of the range support. We talked about that. I thought it was important that if the market was going to be negative, it had to give up that whole rally when it had the breakout, but it hit that support and then moved up.
本周指数方面，标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数在周四开始的反弹中小幅上涨。
Indexes for the week, S&P 500 and NASDAQ up small on the rebound that they got starting Thursday.
标普500指数从区间的关键顶部支撑位反弹。我们之前讨论过这一点。我认为重要的是，如果市场要下跌，它必须放弃突破时的全部涨幅，但它触及了该支撑位，然后上涨了。
S&P 500 bounced from a key top of the range support. We talked about that. I thought it was important that if the market was going to be negative, it had to give up that whole rally when it had the breakout, but it hit that support and then moved up.
本周指数方面，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数在周四开始的反弹中小幅上涨。
Indexes for the week, S&P 500 and NASDAQ up small on the rebound that they got starting Thursday.
但请记住，市场趋势是向上的。我们在 SPY 指标上看到了一个新的卖出信号。顺便说一下，上周我告诉过你们我不会靠近这个市场，现在 SPY 又出现了另一个卖出信号。我们讨论过原因，那就是一切都显示出向下的扩散，我永远不会碰这个市场。
However, keep in mind that the market trend is upward. We have a new sell signal on the SPY indicator. By the way, I told you last week that I wouldn't go near this market and now we have another sell signal on SPY.
We talked about the reason, which is that everything shows a downward widening and I can never touch this market.
现在，关于标普500，顺便说一句，我预计9月的前十天会很艰难。这通常是科技股受影响最严重的时期。因此，预计该指数也会略有下降。然而，标普500指数继续上涨，因为钱一直在印，那个东西一直涨涨涨。
它仍然处于上升趋势，仍然有买入信号，没有卖出信号。因此，尽管9月疲软，我不会做空标普500，因为它与全球货币供应量紧密相连。
Now, regarding the S&P 500, by the way, I expect the first ten days of September to be tough . This is usually the period when technology stocks are most severely affected. Therefore , expect this indicator to decrease slightly as well.
However, the S&P 500 index continues to rise because money keeps being printed, and that thing keeps going up and up and up. It is still in an upward trend, there is still a buy signal, and there is no sell signal.
Therefore, despite the weakness in September, I will not short the S&P 500 because it is closely linked to the global money supply.
以SPY为例，我确实在这波反弹中做了一笔多头交易，然后我还有一些空头头寸是从这里开始的。所以，我回补了大部分，实际上我在这里回补了很多，然后在这里又卖回了一点点，但我仍然持有SPY和半导体板块的核心空头头寸。
looking at the spy for instance I I did take a long trade on this bounce over here and then I'm still short some from over here. So, um, that I covered most of it and actually I covered a lot of it right here and sold back a little bit right here, but I I still have a core position short the SPY and the semiconductors as well.
好的，我们先来看标普500指数，在日线图上的SPY。你们可以看到，我一直在说会发生什么，应该发生什么，因为我们在这个节目中经常讨论这个。我们讨论突破和回踩那条被突破的趋势线。我们清楚地看到6月2日这里有一个高点。
今天价格回落并触及完全相同的价格点，获得支撑并从这个区间反弹。现在，如果你忽略背景中发生的一切，这应该是一个反弹设置。我们有三个急剧下跌的交易日，直接进入一个支撑区域。明天我们应该反弹，并测试昨天交易行为留下的缺口回补。
但考虑到宏观背景和价格行为已经如此接近这个支撑水平，实际上削弱了这个区域，这降低了潜在反弹的概率。但是，我不会感到惊讶如果我们明天收高并收正，仅仅因为图表上的技术面。我们很可能需要10年期收益率和美国石油部门的帮助才能使这次反弹实现。
All right, let's jump into the S&P 500 first with the SPY on the daily time frame. You can see here guys, what have I been saying was going to happen and what should happen because we talk about this in this show so often.
We talk about breakouts and retraces to that trend line from which it broke out from. We clearly see we have a high pivot back here on June 2nd. Today was the day we had price come back in and tag that exact same price point and get support and bounce up off of this range.
Now, if you take away everything that's going on in the background, this should be a bounce setup. We have three sharp days moving lower right into an area of support. We should be bouncing up tomorrow and testing the gap fill from trading action yesterday.
But with the macro backdrop and with price action already coming so close to this level of support in essence weakening this area, that's reducing probabilities of a potential bounce.
But, I would not be surprised to see us up and close positive tomorrow just because of the technicals on the chart. We very well likely will need help in the 10-year yield and US oil department for that bounce to materialize.
