$LVMH

LVMH

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne – Depositary Receipt (underlying: LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, Euronext Paris)

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09-14
《LVHM Stock Investing Analysis + Intrinsic Value》
$LVMH未站边
LVMH 估值合理,上行空间取决于能否恢复增长;若无法恢复增长,则风险高而回报低。

一段时间以来,关于 Louis Vuitton 股票的请求很多。我们来看一下。当请求很多时,通常是因为该股较此前高点大幅下跌,而每个人都想在这只股票回到此前高点时快速让自己的钱翻倍。

a lot of requests over time for Louis Vuitton stock. Let's check it. When there are a lot of requests, it's usually because the stock is down significantly from previous highs and everybody wants just to quickly double their money if this returns to the previous highs.

在本视频中,我们将讨论这种情况发生的可能性。这总是有可能发生的。请记住这一点。市盈率处于数十年来的低位。每次它这么低的时候,都是买入这样一家公司的绝佳时机。

In this video, we're going to discuss the chances for that to happen. That can always happen. Bear that in mind. The P ratio is at multi-deade lows. Every time it was this low, it was a great time to buy a company like this.

他说在等
奢侈品消费能否恢复增长
若增长恢复,市盈率将扩张,股价翻倍;若出现危机,股价腰斩
未来几年财报/宏观经济数据
若增长意外加速,将削弱“估值合理”的立场;若消费持续疲软,则支持“高风险”的立场
09-03
《Ranking our Portfolio Watchlist – Meta, CSU, Copart, Shopify (Tier List)》
$LVMH未站边
对LVMH持中性态度;因营业利润大幅下滑(从225亿美元降至不足170亿美元)且缺乏明显催化剂,尽管估值吸引人,仍将其置于C/D级。

我实际上也考虑过再看LVMH和MS,有点像奢侈品剧本以及他们如何运作。

I actually thought about also looking at LVMH and MS again sort of as like the luxury playbook and how they are doing.

所以LVMH第一次进入我的视野是在2024年。我们大师社区的一位成员和我谈过它,奢侈品行业听起来太好了,不像是真的。你知道,有很多非常富有的人,他们不在乎价格,他们非常对价格不敏感,而且他们对这些奢侈品上瘾。

所以你可以看到LVMH的营业利润在2023年达到顶峰。这在当时非常符合叙事。然后我们看到它大幅下降。所以220亿美元的营业利润,22.5亿美元的营业利润在23年12月那个财年,然后在过去12个月略低于170亿美元。所以这是一个戏剧性的下降。

So uh LVMH was first uh was first put on my radar um back in 2024. a member of our uh mastermind community talked to me about it and um you know the luxury industry it just sounded uh the thesis sounded too good to be true.

You know it was uh oh there's a lot of really rich people and they don't care about the price for what they pay. Uh they're you know very very price insensitive uh and you know they're addicted to these luxury goods.

Um and and so that was very much like you could see uh the operating profit peaked in 2023 for LVMH. That was very much uh the narrative uh at the time. Um and then we've seen that decline substantially.

Uh so 22 billion in operating profit, 22.5 billion um in operating profit uh in December 23 for that fiscal year and then in the last 12 months a bit under 17 billion. Um so that's a that's a dramatic um decline.

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