然后还有 KKR，我今年重新建仓了，它显然拥有一个由它拥有和长期放贷的企业组成的投资组合，市场一直对软件公司、私募股权公司和私人信贷公司的投资组合中的 AI 敞口感到紧张。我重新建仓的观点是，我认为现有的投资组合就是这样，人们明白资产管理公司会因他们在 AI 出现之前购买的一些东西而受到伤害。
我认为最有能力生存下来的公司是那些拥有最长业绩记录和最多蓝筹股名称的公司，它们可能会因为一两个糟糕的年份而被原谅，因为它们之前有 10 个年份表现非常好，而且它们作为优秀投资者有着如此多的经营历史，我认为它们将继续保持持久。
而规模较小的中端市场公司，由于年份较少，可能因糟糕的投资而被给予较少的回旋余地。所以我认为你会看到中端市场公司的整合消失。这将继续越来越艰难地向上推进，要么向下走向没有受到 AI 影响的新初创公司，要么走向现有的蓝筹股，也就是大型另类资产管理公司。
所以我认为大型另类资产管理公司将成为在私募股权和另类投资中夺取份额的受益者，同时在一个因为 AI 而快速发展的商业和经济世界中，它们也会从被动投资中夺取份额。你可以说拥有被动投资变得更难了，对吧？
你真的想拥有所有那些 AI 输家的企业吗？难道你不想让主动管理者为你挑选那些可能因为投资 AI 而表现良好的企业，成为 AI 赢家吗？所以，还有很多其他原因让我觉得这很有趣，但我认为大型另类资产管理公司长期来看将成为 AI 赢家。
所以这就是今天投资组合中体现出来的三种方式，我能想到的。
Um and then KKR which I reinitiated this year which has obviously a portfolio of businesses that it owns and that it has lent to over time and that and and the markets have been nervous about the AI exposure of the software companies and private equity firms and private credit firms portfolios and I reinitiated the position with the view that I think the existing portfolios are what they are right people understand that asset managers will be hurt by some stuff that they bought before AI was a thing.
And I think the firms that are best positioned to survive that are the ones with the longest track records and the most blue chip names that are likely going to be given a pass for a bad vintage or two because they have 10 vintages before that that did very well and they have so much operating history as being good investors that I think they will continue to be durable. while smaller mid-market firms that have fewer vintages might be given less less rope to kind of work with for making bad investments.
And so I think you you're going to see a consolidation of mid-market firms going away. it's going to continue to push more and more uphill towards the the well either downhill to new startups that didn't get hurt by the AI stuff or by the you know the incumbents uh the blue chip kind of the mega alts and so I think mega alts are going to be beneficiaries of taking share within private equity and alternatives but also taking share from passive in a world where business and economy is rapidly evolving because of AI you could make the case owning passive gets gets harder right?
Do you really want to own all the businesses that are AI losers? Don't you want active managers to select for you the businesses that could really do well based on making investments in AI and be AI winners?
So I and and there's there's lots of other reasons I think it's interesting also, but I think the mega alts are going to be AI winners long term. And so that's that's three ways it manifests in the portfolio today that I could think of offhand.