GOOGL 全部观点

138 deals in Congress at Google. 71 purchase transactions, 67 sales transactions.

But interesting things also happened today. Uber has decided to lay off 10% of its staff to invest in robot taxis, and Waymo has just deployed another 250 robot taxis in Texas.

I think Waymo wants to make sure they have a strong presence.

But my bet is that Tesla will push both Uber and Waymo out of the market within 6 to 12 months. It would be uncompetitive for them to continue in that game.

Well, it's cheap today because the market fears that well, uh Google AI overviews or ChatGPT, these types of AI chatbots are stealing traffic or are taking traffic away from Reddit's website, and Reddit themselves have said that they've seen search traffic, Google traffic come down a little bit.

SpaceX has its own compute. Google has its own compute.

But the real everything I'm seeing the real strength there in building out data centers is uh SpaceX and Google.

because you have Google you have Amazon you have Meta you have Oracle you have Microsoft and you have SpaceX you have six basically hyperscalers

Moving on to Google. Start of the week at $343. Shares were up and down, but finished flat at 343. The FTC is potentially scrutinizing YouTube for account suspension and content policies.

It's the Trump administration probably contends that maybe conservative voices or other voices get suspensions. I would as somebody that creates content here. I've never run into this issue.

Knock on wood. And thankfully, but I do sympathize with people that maybe push the envelope from an opinion or a

People are thinking in terms of Oh, wow, we're going to get another Google, or another Apple, whatever. there is zero chance it's going to be as dominant, you know, as Google is in search, for example.

Even Google, now, I would argue search is in trouble basically because I think the Google search is Google search is not the best search, but, you know what? Even the best search compared with AI is like, you know, it's got 10% of the capability.

I I would say Google is going to be, in the end, you know, going to be a big loser by the commoditization of AI.

Berkshire Hathaway, they are buying, Warren Buffett specifically is buying, even more Google. Yes, Buffett just added another 45% to his position in the A shares, and he's bumped the C shares up to a 3.2% position in the Berkshire portfolio as well.

So, this is now his fourth largest holding, and the crazy thing is Google has arguably gotten even better value over the past 3 months as well. Back when we covered the first quarter filing, Google was trading around a PE of 30, and Simply Wall Street had it sitting at 20% overvalued from their discounted cash flow.

Companies like Microsoft and Google still rely heavily on outside chip makers to expand their business.

Now, in a different company, one of our members, Baylor, he started dollar cost averaging into Google at around 134 a share. Guys, you got to remember when Google was at 134, it was on its way down to 85.

And people were all over Google. It's lost its way. AI is going to replace it. YouTube is replaced by Tik Tok. Let's fire the CEO.

Google, which is my current largest position. It's a $27,000 position with $113,000 in the green. Google today trades at around $347. So at 347, it's trading at a 26 Ford PE ratio and a 1.2% free cash flow yield.

I don't believe that Google's cheap today. I'm not buying it right now. I continue to hold it mostly because it's such a good company and I believe the future is bright for it, but overall it's not a company that I think is a screaming buy.

And the buy target that I've set for Google is $250, so around $100 less than its current price.

Moving on to Google. Start of the week at 343. Shares didn't do anything this week. Drifted lower, but then recovered a down about 0.4% just fractionally to 341.

This comes as Marvell Technologies. We're not talking about the comic books. We are talking about the custom semiconductor maker, often playing a backseat to the likes of Broadcom, even AMD.

Well, Marvell is jumping to the top of the list of Google as they signed a chip deal including issuing warrants to the company. We've seen this over at AMD. They had issue a huge chunk of the company to open AI and Meta.

Marvell doing the same with Google. This gives Google obviously a huge incentive to deal with Marvell because they essentially are allowed the right to buy shares of Marvell at just $206 per share.

I think don't quote me on this, but I think it was about 6% of the company. So if Marvell stock continues to rise and currently it's at 237, well Google of course would exercise those rights cuz they're getting the stock at a tremendous discount.

Also obviously incentivizes them to buy from Marvell to juice their revenue, to juice the stock price, and just make those warrants worth even more. You do have to factor that in as a shareholder as those rights essentially dilute you as a shareholder and in some ways can be a very expensive way to sell GPUs in the hottest chip market that we've ever seen.

And then you've got Google is is also, you know, starting to tighten up in here a little bit. It's not quite as bullish, but it's holding the year-to-date anchor. That's that orange line.

It's got a rising 20-day I'm sorry, 200-day moving average under it. The 20-day is just kind of you know, we're getting a little bit of mixed messages here.

Want Google's cloud revenue? It's there.

yet that said he just invested tens of billions of dollars in Alphabet and we know that it was Buffett now and not Abel who was calling that decision which is interesting and basically he's called Is negligence of tech companies a mistake?

And although I would say investing in Google was probably one of the safest bets on tech you can make. Prices are high, but boy, I mean, what a quarter we just saw from Google again.

Yeah. For me, Uber, Google, and Adobe are all very, very significant positions in my portfolio,

I'm very proud of Alphabet. I think there's a lot to say about this one and and fortunately mostly positive things to say. It's somewhat funny that Google has been our largest holing from pretty much the beginning of this journey and yet it's probably also the company we spent least amount of time talking about and it might be because you know everybody talks about Google.

A member of my trade alerts had a 322 and a half strike on Google that was in the money. And Google traded down to about 319 on July 24th. He rolled the strike down to 315 to avoid assignment, which is understandable, but it was the wrong call.

Assignment in this case was the win. Google was back above 370 within a few weeks.

So, what we'll do today, um, we have a tier list prepared. We actually have two tier lists. So, for one, we will talk about um the max 7 companies as you can see here. Plus, we have some extras.

So, we will talk about the Max 7s like you know, Meta, Google, Microsoft, those those sorts of companies.

But the pattern that should concern you is that last week Alphabet Google right reported their first ever negative free cash flow quarter as a company negative $5.8 billion after their capital expenditures doubled year-over-year to $45 billion spent in a single quarter company.

They raised their 2026 capex guidance to between$1.95 and $25 billion, right? They're they are telling investors, we're going to go spend $200 billion in cash and reinvest it into our business to go build these, you know, data centers and like it's $200 billion. It's just unbelievable.

We heard this story before, but it was with Google just a week ago. And I'll be going over why I support Google's equity raise and I do not support Meta's equity raise.

One of them from the repeated AI skeptic and AI bear which is Gary Marcus tearing apart Google in a viral tweet saying that Google is building out a commodity which is AI.