标普500中性偏空；动能在一个明确区间内减弱，需跌破75.06才构成看空信号，或升破7816/7960才延续看涨。

We will start here with the "S&P 500" index. This is the weekly chart for the SPX index, and of course you can see a bull market since 2022, and that has continued with one major correction here in April, where we saw it form that bottom there on April 25.

Then that minor correction here that we saw in the first part of this year, in March.

Now, what we see here is interesting, because while the market tried to reach a high level, I'll take a closer look, where you can see our reversal flashlight in this corrective period , has turned negative in this area almost.

It corrected for about 6 weeks and then started to rise again. You can see now, after this big jump upwards, that it has been in a sideways range for the past seven weeks. It only moved sideways.

Now, our reversal flashlight is giving a warning, and you can see that here where it starts to flip. We would describe this situation currently as neutral to slightly negative.

He is simply retreating. The stock market, and the S& P 500 index, failed to reach a new record high.

Whether this will matter, we will probably know very soon by how long the market continues to rise. If it actually gives us a negative signal, we will believe that we have witnessed a double top form here.

The same will be true for the S&P 500, which did not set a new record, but is close enough to say that it was a double top. We do n't know that yet.

So, this is a look at the cycle analysis of the S&P 500 index, which indicates that we are in a defined range. If it goes up, the next real resistance is either at 7816 or that projection there at around 7960.

That will be the next level there. So, it is 7816 at the last peak and 7960 if it manages to continue rising. At the moment, we have that simple warning that momentum is waning.

So, I'm not sure if we should really describe this as neutral right now.

When I look at the daily chart here, you can see the momentum conditions at the bottom, and let me put the cycle analysis here. We have a neutral position now when looking at our options bias indicator .

And we have the "Slim Ribbon" there, which looks like it's trying to shrink back, and is unable to widen , which is important. And we have an evening star pattern there. We looked at the possibility based on a more positive formation, which is what we got here, as the market moves to a new record high .

This possibility still exists, and you can see that we are expecting here the 78.6% level, at which it stopped, and then a return to that historic peak at 78.16. For this to tell us something negative, and that the average patterns have already peaked , it needs to fall below this level, which is around 75.06.

So, for the time being, we would also call these conditions something between slightly positive and neutral. This is the S&P 500 index. Again, it needs to fall below 75.06 to be negative.

It needs to break above 77, there, around 77.72, to give us a positive warning, and of course, breaking above that peak would be a good thing. So, we are still within a defined trading range , and this range that we have seen for a long time, specifically since late July and throughout August, has been very long .

This cycle that you see here was formed negatively. This means that the probability of rising above this level was, most likely, one in three, but it did happen. So, remember that we are making probabilities, and what happened here is the least probable.