是的，Lulu又下跌了1.7%，目前略高于98美元。你最后一个选股我也很期待听到，是UPS。我们看到UPS在过去一个月里失去了动能。它们在下跌，而由于这次下跌，它们年初至今几乎持平。
Yeah, Lulu's down another 1.7% to just above $98 right now. Uh, your last pick I'm excited to hear about, too. It's UPS. Uh, we've seen UPS just lose momentum over the last month.
They're down. and it's brought them pretty much flat year to date because of this decline.
那么，你对UPS的论点是什么？是的，我把这框定为提出一个问题：市场是不是在告诉我们一些管理层没有说的事情？因为管理层说一切都很好。第二季度营收同比增长7.6%。我们上调了全年指引。
管理层说重组已经过去，他们正带着动能进入下半年。但我在关注股票走势图，而走势图对这些话并不一定感到兴奋。如果你想想他们所处的业务以及幕后正在发生的事情，他们正在逐步结束与最大客户的关系，也就是Amazon。
所以我认为投资者在质疑，当美国最大的包裹承运商之一日益成为自己的配送竞争对手时，会发生什么。因为现在Amazon正在配送，我相信这个数字，别引用我，我相信大概是他们正在配送自己约85%的包裹，或者他们预计到2029年将配送自己85%到91%的包裹。
所以，他们正日益把配送掌握在自己手中。然后你还得考虑柴油创下了每加仑5.85美分的纪录高位，接近每加仑6美元。所以，这对一个靠卡车在路上跑、靠飞机飞送包裹的业务来说没有帮助。你真的得问自己，如果你已经失去了最大的电商客户，也就是Amazon，而且你正在逐步结束这段关系，那电商、配送或包裹还有什么其他理由会繁荣？
所以，什么能帮助包裹和配送回升？我不知道我们对此有答案。而我认为这就是你在股票中看到的情况。你还有一个在118区域附近形成的双顶。但更重要的是，这只股票刚刚跌破200日移动均线。
然后所有移动均线都在向下交叉。技术面就是不好看。而且我也没有基本面故事或业务故事来说，这就是为什么这些公司的运输和包裹会增加。这是他们将争取到的客户，将成为下一个Amazon来扭转局面。所以，我不、我不、我不认为，让我……
So, what's your thesis on UPS? Yeah, I framed this as asking the question, is the market telling us something that management isn't? Cuz management is saying that everything is great.
You know, Q2 revenue was up 7.6% year-over-year. We raised full guidance. Management said that the restructuring is behind them and that they're entering the second half with momentum.
But I'm paying attention to the stock chart and the stock chart isn't necessarily uh excited about those words. If you think about the business that they're in and what's going on behind the scenes, you know, they're winding down their relationship with their biggest customer, which is Amazon.
And so I think investors are questioning what happens when one of the biggest package shippers in America increasingly becomes its own delivery competitor. Because now Amazon is delivering I believe the number, don't quote me, I believe it's something like they're delivering about 85% of their own packages or they expect to deliver 85 to 91% of their own packages by 2029.
So I mean they're increasingly taking delivery into their own hands. Then you have to factor in that diesel hit a record high of 5.85 cents a gallon, almost $6 a gallon. And so that doesn't help a business whose business is having trucks on the road and flying airplanes to deliver packages.
And you really have to ask yourself, is there another reason for e-commerce or deliveries or packages to boom if you've lost your biggest e-commerce uh client, which is Amazon, and you're winding that down.
So, what is going to help packages and delivery pick up? I don't know that we have an answer for that. And I think that's what you're seeing in the stock. You also have a double top that happened around the 118 area.
But more importantly, this stock has just broken down below the 200 day moving averages. Then all the moving averages are crossing down. It's just not looking good technically.
And I also don't have a fundamental story or a business story to say this is why shipping and packages are going to increase for these guys. Here's who they're going to pick up that's going to be the next Amazon to turn it around. So, I don't I don't I don't see Let me