Meet Kevin 对 $TSLA 的判断变化

频道资料 →本频道有 4 位标注的说话人:Adam Jonas、Goldman Sachs、Mark Mahaney、Wells Fargo共 13 条
2026-09-21看涨
《HOLY TESLA SEMI TRUCK | Tesla Stock GAME CHANGER》
特斯拉 Semi 卡车是一项被低估的正面催化剂;到 2030 年达到年产 5 万辆,可能为股价带来约 10% 的增值。

我们需要谈谈特斯拉 Semi 卡车,因为 Top Gear 对它做了很出色的分析,我们会回顾其中的一些信息,看看这对特斯拉股价可能意味着什么。

We need to talk about the Tesla Semi truck because Top Gear has given a great analysis of it, and we'll review some of the information in it to see what that might mean for Tesla's stock.

提醒一下,特斯拉 Semi 卡车是在 2017 年底发布的。那大约也是我拿到我那辆黑色 Model X 的时候。我很喜欢它。我父亲现在还在开我那辆黑色的车,非常棒。但这辆卡车本应在一年半内、也就是 2019 年某个时候发布。

我们实际看到的却是一次又一次的延期,原因是供应链、这些车辆的效率,以及新冠疫情。所以,试验车队直到 2022 年才真正交付。那是在 2022 年 12 月。也就是说,我们拿到第一批试验车队已经是 4 年前的事了。

这些车队大多运往佛罗里达州的 PepsiCo。他们刚刚在 2026 年 4 月 29 日为这些卡车开通了高密度生产线。所以,从概念阶段到量产线,用了 9 年。

Just to remind you, the Tesla Semi truck was unveiled in late 2017. That was around the same time I got my black Model X. I loved it. My father still drives that black car of mine; it's fantastic.

But the truck was supposed to be released within a year and a half, sometime in 2019. What we really saw was one delay after another, due to supply chains, the efficiency of these vehicles, and the Covid pandemic.

So, a trial fleet was not actually delivered until 2022. That was in December 2022. That is, we are talking about 4 years ago when we got our first trial fleets. Those fleets were mostly destined for PepsiCo in Florida.

They just opened the high-density production line for these trucks on April 29, 2026. So, from concept stage to mass production line, it took 9 years.

2026-09-21看涨
《why stocks are skyrocketing [spoiler: it's just getting started]》
特斯拉 Semi 的量产是该股尚未被定价的上行因素,而 Optimus 的预期已被计入股价。

我还没提到 Tesla Semi,但已经有一些关于 Tesla Semi 的视频流出,也许我会单独做一期视频来讲,不过它们非常好。我还不确定五年的回本周期是否足够有吸引力,从而为 Tesla Semi 带来大规模采用的订单。

但它带来的作用是,这些我们看到的 Tesla Semi 的进展——现在实际上已经进入量产——会促使人们开始把 Tesla 的半挂卡车作为一个上行因素来承销,而我认为这一点目前还没有反映在股价里。

我确实认为有很多关于 Optimus 的期待已经反映在股价中,但半挂卡车方面则没有那么多。

which I didn't even mention yet, the Tesla Semi, but there are some videos that have dropped regarding the Tesla Semi, maybe I'll make a separate video on it, but they're very good.

I don't know yet that the five-year payback period is going to be desirable enough to get sort of mass adoption orders for the Tesla Semi. But what it does is these these Tesla drops that we're getting on the Tesla Semi that you know now we're actually getting to production, they are going to lead people to start underwriting Tesla uh as having the semi as an upshot, which I don't think is priced into the stock at this moment.

I do think there's a lot of hope regarding Optimus priced in, but not so much on semis.

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