Schwab Network 对 $SPY 的判断变化

《McAlvany: Market Seeing "Best Set Up for Gold Ever," Silver Offers More Torque》

SPY当前的高估值指标表明，尽管短期内可能继续上涨，但在5至10年的周期内长期回报前景不佳（低至负值）。

你预计标普500指数和纳斯达克指数可能下跌30%至50%。如果用今天的市场来衡量，标普500指数，按照各种指标，无论是KIP还是Q比率，长期估值指标都高于平均值三个标准差。这代表着99.7%的情况。

在市场历史上，我们只在极少数时期经历过这种水平的通胀。所以，如果你看未来五到十年的长期回报，这并不是开始这段旅程的好位置。在那段时间里，也就是5到10年，你的回报很可能是低到负的。

因此，评级很重要，你支付的价格很重要，而这些评级非常高。它还能涨得更高吗？当然可以。

you anticipate a potential 30 to 50% drop in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. If you measure today’s markets, the S&P 500, uh , according to a variety of metrics, whether it’s the KIP or Q ratio, the long-term valuation measures are three standard deviations above average.

This represents 99.7% of all times. We have only experienced this level of inflation in very few periods in the history of the markets. So , if you're looking at long-term returns over the next five to ten years, uh , this isn't a good place to start the journey.

Ah , your returns are likely to be low to negative during that time period, 5 to 10 years. Therefore, the rating is important, the price you pay is important, and these are very high ratings. Can it rise higher? certainly.

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