来看 SMH，各位，SMH，如我们所见，昨天确实小幅回落。如果你还记得看 Trading the Close 的话，我每天都在讲这个，各位。我一直在密切关注 SMH 的动向，因为我把 SMH 视为市场风险偏好情绪的领先指标。
我们分析和讨论过的这条你在图表上看到的下降趋势线，来自历史高点。我们最近已经突破并远离了那条趋势线。一次很棒的突破。在突破过程中，我们还突破了这条更长期的上升平行通道。这个平行通道自 2025 年 4 月的解放日低点以来一直限制着价格。
所以重新脱离并站回其上方，短期内看涨，我们手上是一个双重突破。价格只是在这里被卡住了，正好在这波下跌的 618 斐波那契回撤位，也就是 607 和 58。突破这个位置短期内将非常看涨。
所以我认为，任何收在 60758 上方的日线收盘价，都会增加 SMH 上涨并攻击下一个关键阻力位 635 和 84 的概率。所以今天要关注日线收盘。如果我们收在那关键阻力位 60758 上方。
Into the SMH, guys, SMH, as we see, did pull back slightly yesterday. And if you recall from watching trading the close, I've been illustrating this daily, guys. really monitoring what's going on with the SMH because I see the SMH as being the leading indicator for risk on sentiment in the markets.
And what we've analyzed and discussed this declining trend line that you see on the chart is from the all-time highs. We most recently have broken out and extended away from that trend line.
A great breakout. In doing so, we broke out of this longerterm inclining parallel channel. This parallel channel contained price since the liberation day lows back in April of 2025.
So getting out and back above that again near-term bullish double breakout on our hands. Price just has simply gotten jammed up right here at the 618 fib retrace from this decline which is at 607 and 58.
Getting through that would be very bullish near term. So I see any close daily above 60758 that does increase probabilities for SMH to go up and attack the next key resistance level at 635 and84.
So be watching the daily close today. If we close above that key level of resistance 60758.