Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $SHOP 的判断变化

2026-08-12
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Shopify商业模式强劲但估值过高;当前倍数下不宜买入。

有趣的Shopify集成。

Um, interesting Shopify integration.

顺便说一句,Shopify 是另一只很棒的股票,但它仍然非常昂贵。不过,它的商业模式非常出色,确实是一个非常出色的商业模式。我只是希望它能更便宜一些。

Shopify by the way is another great stock that thing is is continue to be just very expensive. Uh but is just a tremendous business model. It really really is a phenomenal business model. Um I just wish it were cheaper.

我很快就要继续了。看这个,看看 Shopify。这大概是我们看的最后一只股票。市盈率 73 倍,市销率 12 倍,自由现金流收益率 1.3%。但我们来看看 Shopify 的一些图表。

看这个收入曲线,真的非常棒。也许这些家伙还能继续增长。我的意思是,这家公司的妙处在于,所有流经的资金都伴随着费用,对吧?他们为在线企业托管网站。他们有强大的后端集成、结账优化和会员优化,让小型创业者能够轻松地规模化经营业务。

现在甚至中型和大型公司也可以使用 Shopify。他们收取费用。他们使用 Braintree 作为商户处理商,每一美元都能获得商户处理费。所以可以把他们想象成 American Express 或 Visa,从所有流经的资金中抽取一小部分。

这是一个很棒的商业模式。如果你的网络中有数万亿美元流经,而你在资金循环过程中获得几分之一美分,你就不需要做太多事情。你不需要销售商品。那是你的客户做的事情。他们销售商品,而你只是从流经你基础设施的所有资金中抽取一小部分。你需要做的就是维护基础设施。

I'm going to have to keep going pretty soon. It's uh se look at this. Look at look at Shopify. Just this is probably the last stock we'll take a look at. 73 times earnings, 12 times revenue. free cash flow yield 1.3%.

But let's just look at some charts for Shopify. Look at this revenue curve. Really, really um fantastic. Maybe these guys can continue to go. I mean, what's neat about this business is they have fees associated with all the money that rolls through, right?

These guys host websites for online businesses. Um, they have tremendous back-end integr integrations and checkout optimizations and membership uh optimizations that make running a business at scale easy for small entrepreneurs.

And now even at even at midsize and large companies can use use Shopify. uh they take a fee. They use Brainree as their merchant processor uh and they get merchant processing fees on every dollar.

So think of them as like an American Express or a Visa that um takes a small percentage of all the dollars flowing through. That's a great business model. If you have trillions of dollars flowing through your network and you're getting fractions of a penny as that cycles through, you don't have to do a lot.

You don't have to sell the goods. That's what your customers do. They sell the goods and you just take a small small rip off all the money that runs through your infrastructure.

And what you have to do is maintain the infrastructure.