Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $RDDT 的判断变化

2026-08-12
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Reddit是一家有趣的企业,基本面强劲(营收加速增长、90%毛利率、新近盈利),但可防御性不确定。

我有没有看过Reddit?没有。我们来看看吧。这会很有趣。我甚至从未看过它。让我们看一下。首先,让我们调出财务数据,利润表。收入增长良好。22亿,上涨。哇。70%,60%。收入在增长,而且增速在加快。

这真的很有趣。毛利,一家数字公司,但毛利率90%。好的,谢谢研发。所以他们去年财年12月赚了20亿。所以我们还有三四个月,抱歉,还有六个月才能看到下一个结果。他们赚了20亿毛利,研发相对而言。

嗯,那在增长。是的,他们在研发上花了7.8亿。这就是你想要的。这是管理层拿他们那份的地方。你想看看他们拿了多少。所以,五六年前。哦,抱歉,那是销售、一般及行政费用。这是管理层。

所以,六年前,管理层以4300万的薪酬运营这家公司。现在,薪酬是2.3亿。那是管理层薪酬六年8倍的增长。那非常高。但话说回来,他们的业务收入从2亿涨到22亿,涨了10倍。所以,该表扬的要表扬。

那是惊人的扩张。加油,伙计们。拿现金吧。销售和营销费用。所以,现在他们支付……等一下。让我们看看那是什么样子。拿出计算器,让我们看看。所以他们去年支付了。销售费用在这里,5亿。

500除以22000,他们花了收入的22%在营销上。回到四年前,那是222除以666,好数字。好吧,不是好数字,是个奇怪的数字。33%。所以他们在销售和营销费用上占收入的比例在下降。

尽管这个数字在上升,但占收入的比例更小了。好的,我接受。而且他们赚钱了。他们第一次赚钱了。他们之前一直无法赚钱,我想,就数据能追溯到的范围,他们终于赚钱了。4.42亿。利润率不错。

那是多少?442除以2200,20%。20%的营业利润率,实际上可能更高。即使那是450,457,20%。我想他们折旧很少。有趣。相当不错的公司。我不知道它的护城河有多深。你怎么看他们在市场中的定位?

他们还能做什么?是增加收入吗?他们如何增长?他们是怎么增长的?

Have I ever looked at Reddit? No. Let's do this. This will be fun. Let's uh let's see this. I've never even looked at it. Um let's take a look. Um, so first things first, right?

Let's just pull up the financials income statement. Revenue is growing nicely. 2.2 billion up. Wow. 70% 60%. Revenue is growing and it's is growing at an accelerating rate. That is that is really interesting. um gross profits a digital company but 90% gross profit.

Okay, thank you for that R&D. So they made $2 billion last year fiscal year December. So we've got another three four months, excuse me, another six months before we get another result.

They made $2 billion of gross profit R&D relatively. Well, that's growing. Yeah, they spent $780 million in R&D sing. This what you want. This is this is where management takes their they takes their cut.

You want to see how much of that cut they're they're taking. So, five six years ago. Oop, sorry, that's that's SGNA. This is this is management here. So, six years ago, managers was running this business on $43 million of comp.

Now, that comp is $230 million. That's what 8x growth rate in management comp in six years. That's very high. But then again, their business, the revenue went 10x up from 200 million to 2.2 billion.

So, got to give credit where where it's due. That's phenomenal scaling. Go for it, guys. Take take the cash. Uh selling and marketing expense. So, now they're paying Hang on a second.

Let's see what that what that looks like. Uh pull up a calculator and let's just take a look and see. So, they're paid last year. selling expense was here right here 500 million 500 divided by 22000 they spent 22% of their revenue on marketing we'll [clears throat] go back four years 4 years uh it was 222 divided by 666 great number all right uh not great number was a weird number uh 33% so they're spending less as a percentage of revenue revenue on sales and marketing expense.

Even though this number is going up, it's less of a percent of revenue. Okay, I buy that. And they made [clears throat] money. They made money for the first time. They were unable to make money the last, I guess, as far back as this data goes, they finally made money. 442 million.

It's a decent margin. What is that? 442 / 2200 20%. 20% operating income margin that's actually be higher than that. Even that's 450 uh 45720%. I guess they have little depreciation.

Interesting. Kind of neat company. I don't know how defensible though it is. like how do you think about their positioning in the market, right? What what else can they do? Is it is it add revenue?

How do they how do they grow their how are they growing?