Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $RBLX 的判断变化

2026-08-26看跌
《Roblox Stock: I Did the Math - SBC is OUT OF CONTROL!!》
RBLX因持续经营亏损和过度的股票补偿稀释(5年内40亿美元,约占市值的20%)而不可投资。

Roblox。我们来看一下。嗯,收入不错。好的。收入同比增长 35%。利润率在增长。过去几年的毛利率有所上升。看起来早期是持平的,或者说又回到了 23%。对于一家软件公司来说,这似乎很低。23%。

Roblox. Let's take a look. Uh, nice revenue. Okay. Revenue growing 35% year-over-year. Margins are growing. Profit gross profit margin last couple years. It's moved up. It looks like it was flat early on or it's kind of returned to this 23. That seems low for a software company. 23%.

2026-08-11看跌
《Celsius Holdings (CELH) - 6x Cash on Cash Return!》
RBLX缺乏吸引力;在约50亿美元营收下未能盈利,原因是费用过高(研发、SBC)。

Roblox。我不知道,伙计。你想看看那个吗?好吧,让我们看看。看看我们有什么。

Roblox. I don't know, man. You want to take a look at that? Okay, let's take a look. See what we got.

Roblox。让我们看看。不错的收入。好吧,收入同比增长35%,利润率在增长。过去几年毛利率在上升。看起来早期持平,或者回到了23%。对于一家软件公司来说,这似乎很低。23%。

他们的收入成本是多少?那么多开发者。那似乎是PG,PNG在你的雷达上。也许我们今晚可以谈到。看看我们有多少时间。研发。哦,我的天。15亿的研发。看看这个研发费用。拜托,伙计们。

加上销售和营销。这是你的管理费用。他们可能有大量的股票薪酬。然后他们赚了什么?收入。在这个,这是营业收入,不应该这样倒挂。收入应该是正的。他们在历史上从未实现过正的营业收入。他们有近50亿的收入,却赚不到一分钱利润。

为什么这么难?你带进50亿美元。而要做到这一点,花费了你60亿。

Roblox. Let's take a look. Uh, nice revenue. Okay, revenue growing 35% year-over-year margins are growing. Profit gross profit margin last couple years it's moved up. It looks like it was flat early on or it's kind of returned to this 23.

That seems low for a software company. 23%. What is their cost of revenue? that many developers. That seems PG's PNG is on your radar. Maybe we can get to it tonight. See how how much time we got.

R&D. Oh my god. 1.5 billion of R&D. Look at this R&D expense. Come on, guys. Plus selling and marketing. There's your admin. They probably have a good slug of stockbased comp. And then what did they what they make?

Income. in the this is operating in income is not supposed to be upside down like this. Income should be positive. They have never made positive operating income in their history.

They have almost five billion in revenue and they can't make a single dollar in profit. Why is it that is it that hard? You're bringing five billion dollars in the front door. And to do that, it cost you six.