Rational Investing - Cameron Stewart, CFA 对 $PLAB 的判断变化

2026-08-26看跌
《Roblox Stock: I Did the Math - SBC is OUT OF CONTROL!!》
PLAB债务过高(1.72亿美元)相对于营收(1.2亿美元),现金流为负,且SG&A费用高;需要3-5年的成本削减来偿还债务,之后才能增长。

Playboy 看起来很有意思。市值非常低,而且方向正确。营收同比增长 11%,上个季度净利润为正。这是一个被遗忘的标志性品牌。好吧,我必须这么做。让我看看。我内心那个 13 岁的孩子想看看这到底是怎么回事。

好吧,让我们把它调出来。让我们看看一些现金流。让我看看 Playboy 的股票。我们有什么?哎哟。从每股 40 美元的峰值跌到每股 1.22 美元。哦,天哪。EBITDA、企业价值、市值 1.36 亿美元。

嗯,首先,我的意思是,如果你每股不到 1 美元,你可能会被退市。所以,如果你买入这家公司,存在严重的可能性,如果它被退市,你将更难从这家公司拿回你的钱,如果你想要的话。嗯,所以他们需要进行大规模的合股来提高股价。

合股在市场上从来都不被看好。所以,首先,财务数据,让我们看看这里有多少历史。营收没有增长,我的意思是去年增长了 4%。好吧。利润率不错,毛利率 70%,基于 1.2 亿,但他们保住了其中任何一部分吗?

所以他们实现了 8500 万美元的毛利润,销售和一般管理费用 9100 万。运营这家公司花了他们 9100 万,而它只赚 1200 万。你们看到了吗?所以他们实现了 1.2 亿的营收,员工成本 9100 万。

这意味着人均营收大约是 1.255 美元。嗯,EBITDA 为负 2。让我们看看。发行股票。这就是他们弥补自由现金流缺口的方式。我打赌他们先看资产负债表,但之后他们可能会现金流不足。

嗯,手头只有 4000 万现金。存货、应收账款。

Playboy seems interesting. Very low market cap going in the right direction. Growing revenue 11% year-over- positive net income last quarter. Forgotten iconic brand. Okay, I had to do it.

Let's uh let's see. The 13-year-old in me wants to see what this has to do. All right, let's pull it up. Let's take a look at some cash flow. Wasn't Let's see. Playboy stock. What do we got?

Ouch. $40 a share peak down to a$122 a share. Oh my god. Ebida enterprise uh market cap $136 million. Well, first of all, I mean, if you're less than a dollar a share, you could be delisted.

So, if you're buying this company, uh there's there's a serious potential that you could not if it's delisted, it's going to be much more hard, much harder to get your money out of that company should you want it.

Um, so they need to do a massive reverse split to get their stock price up. Reverse splits are never looked favorably upon in the market. So, uh, first things first, financials, let's just see how much history we have here. revenue not going I mean up 4% last year.

Okay. Margins decent margin 70% gross profit margin on the 120 million but did they keep any of that? So they made $85 million gross profit selling and general administration 91.

It cost them $91 million to run a business that makes 12 million. You guys see this? So they gener I'll make this a bit I can't make it bigger, but I can shrink this so it's easier for you to see.

So they made 120 million of revenue with a staff of 91 million. That means like revenue per employee is like a dollar 255. Um, Ibida negative2. Let's see. Issuing shares. That's how they're covering the free cash miss.

I bet they're new balance sheet first, but then they're probably so missing cash flow. Uh, only 40 million in cash on hand. Inventory A R.