今天早上我们确实拿到了CPI数据，这就是我那个意思，对吧？所以，我们看到油价整周都在上涨，直到今天回落。没错，它触及了我说的关键104水平然后回落，但近期油价的这波走势依然非常巨大，而这加剧了通胀问题，美联储现在真的不得不出来应对。
所以很明显，中东局势在霍尔木兹海峡持续升级。现在是红海，现在是胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯石油设施的袭击。所有这些都加剧了动荡，而动荡又加剧了通胀。现在我们来谈谈今天的CPI报告。今天早上公布的CPI报告基本符合预期，只有一个数字比预期更热。
昨天我讨论过，如果我们得到一份全面非常好的CPI报告，也许美联储就不必加息。但这种情况没有发生。我们拿到的是一份符合预期、略高于预期的CPI报告。你可以看到，核心CPI高于预期，为3%，而预期是2%。
其他所有数字都符合预期。事情已经定了，各位。无论总统怎么说，美联储下周都不得不加息。好，这是第一点。现在，说到这个，我们来谈谈美联储，或者说概率有多大，因为这相当惊人，各位。下周三美联储加息的概率目前是86.5%。
用美联储的话说，这基本上就是板上钉钉的事。这几乎和我们一些政客用来交易的内幕信息一样可靠。我是说，就是那么好。现在，再说一次，我们怎么操作？其实没有什么特别主要的办法。但我的观点仍然是，下周加息是锁定的。
而且没有重大的经济数据。我是说，唯一可能动摇的，是如果下周油价因为某项协议而大幅跳空下跌，比如跌20美元。即便如此，美联储也很可能会加息。好。所以，我们这里面临的情景是，下周周二和周三有为期两天的美联储会议。
决议在2点公布。然后2点30分会有新闻发布会。这些是我们下周需要关注的主要因素。我们现在大致处于甲骨文财报之后的这个过渡期。
Now, this morning we did get CPI data and that's what I mean by that, right? So, we've seen oil rally up all week long until the pullback today. Sure, it hit my key4 104 level and pulled back, but still it was a tremendous move recently in oil and that added inflation issues that really the Fed has to come out and combat now.
So obviously we have escalation in the Middle East continuing over the straight of Hormuz. Now the Red Sea, now strikes by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia, oil facilities. All of this adding to the turmoil that adds to inflation.
Now let's talk about the CPI report here today. So CPI report coming out this morning basically in line except for one number that was hotter than expected. Yesterday I discussed how if we had an amazingly good acrosstheboard CPI report maybe the Fed wouldn't have to hike.
That didn't happen. We got a inline slightly hotter than expected CPI report. You can see right there core CPI coming in hotter than expected at 3% versus the 2% anticipated. Every other number was in line.
It's done folks. the Fed is going to have to hike next week no matter what the president says. All right, so that's number one. Now, speaking of which, let's talk a little bit about what the Fed or what the odds are because this is pretty remarkable, folks.
The odds of a Fed rate hike next Wednesday sit right now at 86.5% chance. In Fed terms, that's essentially a sure thing. That's as almost as good as the the inside information that some of our politicians trade off of.
I mean, that is that good. Now, again, how do we play this? There's not really a major way. But my point still remains is that this is a lock for a raise next week. And there's no major economic data.
I mean, the only thing that could maybe sway is if the the price of oil gapped sharply lower by like $20 next week on a deal. Even then, it's likely the Fed will be raising rates.
All right. So, we have a scenario here where next week we have a two-day Fed meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The decisions out at 2:00. Then at 2:30 there'll be a press conference.
Those are the main factors that we need to watch next week. We're kind of in this interim period now after Oracle earnings.