Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 对 $NVDA 的判断变化

2026-09-21看跌
《AI BUBBLE OR NOT… IS IT TIME TO GO SHORT THIS NOW?》
NVDA基本面强劲但已过度延伸;尽管当前增长仍在,鉴于估值风险和市场出现绝望迹象,建议进行对冲或做空。

因此,Nvidia 预计下一财年增长 70%,这完全属实。如果这些公司兑现这些承诺,Nvidia 的规模将直接翻倍。

Therefore, Nvidia expects 70% growth in the next fiscal year, and that is absolutely true. If these companies keep those promises, Nvidia will simply double in size.

Jensen Huang 正在提高嗓门,向全世界宣告他的公司明年和后年会有多出色,我觉得这种营销已经有点变成一种绝望的状态,只为让这个周期继续下去,因为他们都知道,一旦局面停下来,一旦第一家巨头公司揭穿 Jensen Huang 的骗局,如果他们说“不用了,谢谢”,那么一切都会迅速由盈利转为亏损。

Jensen Huang is raising his voice to tell the whole world how great his company will be in the next year and the year after, and I feel that marketing has turned a little into a state of desperation to keep the cycle going, because they all know that once the situation stops, and once the first giant company exposes Jensen Huang's hoax, if they say, "No thanks." Everything, all gains quickly turn into losses.

2026-09-12看跌
《Where are we with Investing Today! 15% UP Per Year Next? or 80% Crash?》
NVDA 的高增长说法由营销驱动,对循环融资的依赖给 AI 交易带来系统性风险。

英伟达为了保持增长,将向其他业务投资990亿美元,这样这些业务有了英伟达的支持,就能借到更多钱,因为它们有英伟达背书,从而购买更多英伟达芯片。没有这一点,英伟达就不会增长得那么快,也许整个AI芯片的大厦就会崩塌。

Nvidia to keep on the growth will invest 99 billion into other businesses so that the businesses have the backing of Nvidia can borrow more money because it's backed by Nvidia and buy more of Nvidia chips.

Without this, Nvidia would not grow as fast and perhaps the whole house of AI cards would revert.