MSFT 这一页 20 条观点条目，其中 2 条方向发生变化。
微软呢？微软处于卖出信号。你可以看到该股变得多么贪婪，以及它如何向上跳跃。它在这里略微向上横盘。微软是9分中的4分。那是给你的9分中的4分。
What about Microsoft? Microsoft is at a sell signal. You can see how greedy the stock has become and how it has jumped upwards. It was moving sideways slightly upwards here. Four more out of nine are for Microsoft. That's four out of nine for you.
这对Meta和微软来说可能意义不大，因为它们拥有强大的技术，甚至亚马逊也是如此，但较小的竞争对手可能能够利用这一点。
This may not mean much to Meta and Microsoft given their strong technology there, and even Amazon, but smaller competitors may be able to take advantage of it.
现在我们转向微软。该股从510美元开始。该股本周下跌2%，至499美元。这是因为Stifel基于Copilot和人工智能的改进提高了该股的目标价。这是我通常看到的微软的情况。
Now we move on to Microsoft. The stock started at $510. The stock fell 2% this week to $499. This comes as Stifel raised its target price for the stock based on improvements to Copilot and artificial intelligence.
This is what I generally see happening with Microsoft.
微软正处于看涨突破阶段。价格在高成交量下突破了这里。你可以看到这里有向上的跳空缺口，而且它已经处于买入区一段时间了，所以我现在不会追高，但它们在 500 美元水平保持稳定。如果我们能维持这个水平，我认为我们可以期待更高的价格。
Microsoft is in a bullish breakout phase. The price has broken through here with high trading volume. You can see upward gaps here and it has been in the buy zone for a while, so I'm not going to chase the stock now, but they are holding steady at the $500 level.
If we can maintain this level, I think we are looking forward to much higher prices.
苹果和微软对人工智能热潮采取了截然不同的策略。微软已投入数千亿美元建设数据中心，并投资于OpenAI等具有战略重要性的公司。
Apple and Microsoft have taken radically different approaches to the artificial intelligence boom . Microsoft has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in building data centers and investing in strategically important companies such as OpenAI.
那么，鉴于这两种截然不同的AI热潮应对方式，目前哪一家公司的股票更值得买入呢？在过去十年中，苹果和微软在增加收入方面都做得非常出色。
So, given these two very different approaches to the AI boom, which of these two companies is the better stock to buy right now? Over the past decade, Apple and Microsoft have done an excellent job of increasing revenue.
要说你有多讨厌微软。突然之间我们……我们谈论它，我们谈论它，然后选举继续进行，然后……有人又开始谈论它了。
To say how much you hate Microsoft. Suddenly we were We talk about it, and we talk About it, then it comes The elections are going ahead, and... Someone is back talking about it.
在像甲骨文和微软这样的公司之间，有区别吗？当然。微软和强生是市场上仅存的两家被评为AAA级的公司。
Is there a difference? Among companies like Oracle And Microsoft? certainly. Microsoft "and Johnson & Johnson" They are the only two names The two remaining in the market Rated AAA.
微软开盘走高。这也很有趣，因为我想知道今天软件与硬件板块的表现会如何。
Uh Microsoft upright at the open. That's interesting, too, because I wonder how software versus hardware is going to do here today.
微软已启动一项重大新举措，将6000名工程师直接派驻到客户现场，以交付可衡量的业务成果。此外，管理团队强调，其Azour AI业务在短短3个多月内新增了500亿美元的积压订单。
Microsoft has launched a major new initiative embedding 6,000 engineers directly with customers to deliver measurable business outcomes. Additionally, the management team highlighted that its Azour AI business added $50 billion in backlog in just over 3 months.
但这一切是否使微软股票成为买入机会？在整个颠覆性的人工智能技术繁荣期间，微软持续实现营收增长。在最近结束的季度中，其营收增长接近20%。多年来，其营收已从2017年的大约750亿美元增长至最近12个月期间的超过3320亿美元。
But does all of this make Microsoft stock a buying opportunity? Throughout this disruptive AI technological boom, Microsoft has delivered continued revenue growth. In the most recently completed quarter, its revenue growth approached 20%.
Over the many years, its revenue has grown from roughly $75 billion in 2017 to over 332 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
我们通常看到Amazon Web Services、Microsoft Azure和Google Cloud在未来两年内控制着类似的AI实验室计算支出组合，然后这种向backs停止基础设施的转变才会开始。
we generally see Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud controlling a similar mix of AI lab compute spend in the next 2 years before this shift to backs stopped infrastructure kicks in.
也就是说，Amazon、Microsoft和Google现在对其实验室有定价权，但之后，这种定价权护城河可能会消失。
Aka Amazon, Microsoft and Google have pricing power now for their labs, but after that that pricing power moat might go away.
那么，我们从大家可能都很熟悉的微软开始。我认为微软的图表是值得关注的重要图表，不仅仅是因为个股本身，尽管在所谓的“七巨头”或我的观众要求我开始称之为“戴夫的肮脏十二”的股票中，我认为那是一个很好的主意，即追踪成长领域的12只关键股票和ETF。
So, we'll start with the name that probably we're all familiar with, Microsoft. And I think the chart of Microsoft is an important one to watch, not just for the individual stock, even though I would say out of the sort of magnificent seven or what my viewers have asked me to uh to start calling Dave's dirty dozen, I think that was a great uh great idea of uh of 12 key uh stocks and ETFs to track in the growth space.
首先是 Microsoft。这是财报后的跳空高开。该股回调相当有序，但最近一直在走高。所以，我们有一个漂亮的底部突破，来自一个 2 个月的底部。该公司深度涉足网络安全软件。他们的 Azure 产品为公司带来 200 亿美元的安全相关收入。
所以，这是参与软件股财报相关上涨的行情。而且，我们今天确实看到了这个漂亮的底部突破。成交量相当不错。我们的 RSI 为正。现在，如果我们能让 MACD 的黑色线向上穿过红色线，那将给 Microsoft 当前的上升趋势带来更多信心。
First up here is Microsoft. Here's that gap up on earnings. The stock pulled back rather orderly, but more recently it has been on the move higher. So, we have a nice base breakout coming out of a 2-month base.
The company is very involved in cybersecurity software. Their Azure product does produce 20 billion in security-related revenues for the company. So, this is a participation rally in the move earnings-related move into software stocks.
And again, we did see this nice base breakout today. Very decent volume. We have a positive RSI. Now, if we can get that black line up through the red on the MACD, that would give more conviction to the current uptrend taking place in Microsoft.
接下来，我们有微软。看看微软今天在红海之中强劲上涨，我们已经在图表上覆盖了这些。对于一只大盘股来说，这是巨大的涨幅。
Uh next up, we've got MSFT. Look at Microsoft pushing up nicely today amongst the sea of red that we already did cover here on the charts. Great gains here for a mega cap.
这也应该告诉你们，各位，当我们处于严重的抛售压力之下时，是的，大盘股可能会受到打击，但它们也可能是投资者首先寻求安全的地方，因为它们有非常雄厚的财力，而且它们也产生出色的收入，并且它们得到了市场投资者的广泛参与，这些投资者希望确保这些价格得以维持。
That also should be news to you, folks, that when we are under some severe selling pressure, yes, the mega caps can get hit, but they are also a likely first place of safety for investors to go to since they do have very deep pockets, and they do also generate fantastic revenue, and they've got a lot of participation with market investors wanting to ensure these prices maintain.
Microsoft 在资本支出上花费数十亿美元，这能带来多少收益？
How much does Microsoft? They're spending billions of dollars on capex. How much does this make?
我认为 Microsoft 的运营支出约为 1500 亿美元。Microsoft、Google、Amazon 和 Meta 提高了价格，并改变了广告拍卖机制。
I think Microsoft's OPEX is like 150 billion Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, cranked up prices, changed ad auction stuff.
UBS、Barclays 和 Wells Fargo 等分析师的预期显示，Google、Amazon 和 Microsoft 的云收入中有 4400 亿美元来自 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等需要不断融资的无利可图的初创公司。
Analyst expectations uh from like UBS, Barkclays and uh Wells Fargo have $440 billion of cloud revenue across Google, Amazon and Microsoft coming just from open air and anthropic to unprofitable startups who need to constantly raise money
微软在那里。股价上涨了38%。如果我们看价值，股价为487美元。如果我们看内在价值，如果他们保持15%到10%的增长，是的，那里有价值；如果增长更快，价值更多；如果放缓，那就显得非常非常冒险。
鉴于我们讨论过微软的所有增长都来自Anthropic和OpenAI，即虚假收入，我从这个角度将其置于高风险回报的位置。
We have Microsoft there. Stock up 38%. If we look at the value, 487 stock price. If we look at the value intrinsic value if they keep on growing at 15% to 10% then yes there is value if they grow faster even more if they slow down then it looks much much risky and given that we discussed Microsoft how all the growth comes from entropic and open AI so fake revenues I'm putting at a high risk reward now from that perspective
你们大多数人可能不知道，微软刚刚悄悄改变了其会计技术——或者说试图对此保密，将其掩盖起来。该报道指出，此次会计变更将这家软件巨头的资本支出预期从1900亿美元调整至约1750亿美元。
Most of you probably don't know that Microsoft just kind of secretly or tried to be a little secret about it, kind of sweeping under the rug, changed their accounting techniques.
It says the accounting change adjusted the software giant's CapEx expectations to about 175 billion down from 190.
这篇来自《华尔街日报》的文章详细描述了微软如何让投资者难以理解他们实际在做什么，他们的资本支出成本是多少，以及他们的融资成本是多少。
This article from the Wall Street Journal details how Microsoft is making it difficult for investors to understand what they're actually doing, what their CapEx costs are, what their financing costs are.
这篇也是来自《华尔街日报》。他们说微软让投资者在其AI业务的三个关键驱动因素——云计算、资本支出以及与OpenAI的关系——方面处于盲目状态。公司的披露远低于投资者所需的信息。
This one is from The Wall Street Journal. They say that Microsoft is leaving investors flying blind on its AI business across three critical drivers of the AI future, cloud computing, capital expenditures, and its relationship with OpenAI.
The company disclosures fall well short of what investors need.
有趣的是，我们可以看到微软排在第一位。在过去五年中，微软的盈利以高速增长，每股收益复合年增长率超过 18%。你会注意到，他们的交易价格远低于四年平均市盈率。
What's interesting is we can see Microsoft came in at number one. Now, Microsoft over the last five years has grown earnings at a high rate with a EPS CAGR of above 18%. And what you'll notice is they're trading quite a bit below their four-year average PE multiple.
如果我们在这里看微软的 Forecaster，有几件不同的事情值得指出。如果我们看过去五年的销售额，可以看到它大幅增长。与此同时，股价也攀升了。但你会注意到，如果你看去年，他们下跌了 3%，但股价一直非常波动，特别是从大约四月到目前。
股价从最高每股 541 美元一路下跌到 356，回升到 460，然后迅速跌回 352。在最近的财报之后，又达到约每股 506 美元的高点。这是很大的波动。
So, if we look at Microsoft here on Forecaster, there's a couple of different things worth pointing out. If we look at sales over the last five years, we can see it's grown substantially.
And along with it, the share price has climbed higher. But what you will notice is if you look in the last year, they're down by 3%, but the share price has been incredibly choppy, particularly from around April to really around current day.
The stock went from trading as high as $541 a share all the way down to 356, climbed back up to 460, and then quickly fell all the way back down to 352. And then after the recent earnings report, peaked at about $506 a share. That is a lot of volatility.
我们谈到微软在2000年代盈利增长两位数，但股价持平，因为它进入那个时期时市盈率约为70倍。
We talked about Microsoft growing earnings double digits in the 2000's decade and the stock price being flat because it was because it went into that period at like 70 times earnings.
现在，在那之后，我们有微软。微软排名第八。这是一个104,000美元的仓位。其中50,000美元是收益，权重为7%。要让微软获得那10,000美元，我需要它从当前交易的490美元跌至每股400美元。
在最近一次财报后，微软上涨了约25%。它涨得很疯狂。在那之前，它处于每股400美元。所以，如果微软只是回吐上次财报上涨的收益，那么这将是获得那10,000美元的股票。我们可以假设未来5年每股收益增长率为温和的12.4%。
有了这个，我相信微软合适的每股收益倍数相当高，考虑到其护城河和公司的结构，我认为它应该以28倍交易。在这些假设下，以每股400美元买入，未来5年复合年增长率为16.8%，我相信这将明显跑赢市场。
Now, after that, we have Microsoft. Microsoft is number eight. It's a $104,000 position. $50,000 of that being gains, and it's a 7% weighted position. For Microsoft to get that $10,000, I will need it to drop down to $400 per share from the $490 that it currently trades at.
After the last earnings report, Microsoft shot up around 25%. It went up like crazy. And before that, it was at $400 per share. So, if Microsoft simply gives up the gains of its last earnings report bump, then this will be the one that gets that $10,000.
We can assume a modest 12.4% EPS growth rate over the next 5 years. With that, I believe that Microsoft's appropriate EPS multiple quite high given the moat and the structure of the company, I think it should trade at a 28.
And with those assumptions, buying it at $400 per share gives us a compounded annual growth rate of 16.8% over the next 5 years, which I believe would soundly outperform the market.
我非常看好亚马逊的长期前景。杰夫·贝索斯一直在卖出，这推动了股价下跌，但我喜欢亚马逊和微软，它们是七巨头中业绩最好的两家。所以，我认为这些股票目前仍然可以持有。
I like Amazon long a lot. Jeff Bezos has been on the offer that's been driving this thing down, but I like this Amazon and Microsoft were the best two earnings reports out of the mag seven stocks.
So, I do think that these are stocks that you can still own at this point.
路径一是你持有微软，比如说。你卖出一个看涨期权，收取权利金，发生行权，你就出局了。股票再涨20%，你已收取权利金。你总共上涨18%。还不错。你转向下一只股票。
Path one is you own Microsoft, let's say. You sell a call, you collect premium, assignment happens and you're out. Stock runs another 20% and you collected your premium. You're up 18% total. Not bad. You move on to the next stock.
