ElliottWaveTrader 对 $GLD 的判断变化

2026-09-23
《Avi’s Market Minute - September 23rd 2026: Gold, Silver & GDX at a Key Juncture》
GLD 的图表形态混乱不清;更倾向的立场是持有并等待突破,以启动第一浪(C 浪或第三浪),目标指向近期高点。

黄金,黄金大概是所有图表里最混乱的一个。我对黄金的偏好是:在这里持有,然后开始,然后突破,并开启你的第一浪,这要么是C浪,要么是第三浪。这一点尚未确定。最低限度,你在这里是向上的。

但我希望看到这第一浪把我们带回近期高点附近。可以吗?这就是我希望看到的。如果这轮上涨很快开始,那也最说得通。

Um gold and gold is probably the most messy of the charts. My preference in gold would be to hold here, and then begin and then break out and begin your wave one of what's either a C wave or wave three.

That has yet to be decided. Minimally, you're looking up here. But, I'd like to see this wave one take us back towards the recent highs. Okay? That's what I'd like to see. And it makes the most sense if this begins the rally pretty soon.

2026-08-26
《Avi’s Market Minute - August 26th 2026: Update on Gold, Silver & GDX》
黄金更可能回调而非创出新低,但顶部尚未确认;跌破 4600 支撑将增加回调的可能性。

就黄金而言,我认为黄金创出新低的潜力不大。这仍在合理可能性的范围内,但比我预期的可能性要大一些。我把它留在图表上,但我认为黄金更有可能只是回调,而不是创出新低。现在,我要提醒你,我仍然没有任何迹象表明黄金已经见顶。

我需要跌破4600支撑位,才能更有可能认为我们处于回调中。如你所见,看起来我们目前正在经历修正性回调。这可能是向下的1-2浪吗?有可能,但我不会急于下结论。我想先看看我们如何跌破支撑位,然后再对更大的下行空间做出进一步判断。目前,这就是我所关注的。

As far as gold is concerned, again, gold I I don't think has a strong potential for a lower low. Still within the realm of a reasonable possibility more so than I would prefer.

And I'm leaving that on the chart, but I think it's a bit more likely that gold just gets a retracement rather than a lower low. Now, I'm going to warn you I still have no indication that gold has even topped.

I need to take out the 4600 support for gold to make it more likely that we are in that pullback. And as you can see, I mean it's looking like we are getting a corrective pullback so far.

Could this be a one two to the downside? It could be, but I'm not I'm not I'm not jumping on that. Not just yet. I want to see how we get below support before I make any further determinations of bigger downside. For now, this is what I'm looking for.