CRCL 全部观点

circle. I did mention Circle Jerk in my little uh video yesterday. I said uh it's going to 130. Let's see what I was saying is circle's already in the list. Where is it? Circle, circle, circle. There it is.

what I'm looking at here circle couple of things. One buy signal down here around 80 84 bucks. Good time to buy under that level four level. I think it's easily going to level five to 107.

And then after that 130 up here. So I might as well draw that in because that is what I think we'll be at in a year.

So, one is Circle. Um, how do I say this? So, Circle, we had a trade running in it. Stopped out of it. It was actually all of my circle trades have been profitable, but gave up a good deal on that last move because it looked to me like it broke support.

I have to I have to actually after seeing Friday's action, I actually prefer and I think Garrett, some of you guys that follow Garrett, I think he has this count where he has this as five waves here.

I agree now after this move that at least it's probable. However, we only have three ways off. So, I want to see five waves out of this. Regardless, based on what I'm seeing, I am bullish this black count as long as 63 holds.

Wait, wait, let me check that. No, I think that's wrong actually. Sorry, that's the old support. Yeah, it's 6630. So, move that up. As long as 6630 holds, I'm giving this a good chance.

And a little bit of convergence news, CZ buys a $100 million stake in Circle. circle is the USDC issuer and that's a big deal that they got into. Now CZ is a clever fellow. Why would he drop $100 million into Circle if you didn't see a lot of return?

He is what I call smart money. And I've always said stable coins print money and they make money on the money they print. So it's a bit of a no-brainer.

Our "Circle" stock is rising, and rising strongly. Why? Because the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the green light for tokenized stocks. In my opinion, this is why we are seeing excessive liquidity at a record level , and this is why we are seeing Circle.

This is a beautiful one, too, on the chart of circle CRCL. I bring you these breakout retrace plays weekly, if not every other day of this show because guys, they're so powerful and lucrative.

You don't have to do much to understand how this price action is breaking out. Simply rewind the time, scroll back on the chart. Look at this from this pivot high, take a trend line, draw it down to the next pivot, and draw that uh trend line and extend it out further, ensuring that pivot stays right there on that trend line.

And then this tells us the story. You can see when I zoom in, we had price action break above. We actually finally confirmed here and here. Retraced, bounced. Now we're getting another retrace play.

Throwing that money in stable coins would have obviously been good for companies like Circle or Coinbase or whatever and bad for banks.

Throwing that money in stable coins would have obviously been good for companies like Circle or Coinbase or whatever, and bad for banks.

You've got your first pick is circle. We're looking at weakness across cryptocurrency this morning as we wait for that allimportant Senate vote this afternoon on the Clarity Act. uh how are you looking at circle and why did you pick it for the big three today?

Well, first of all, it is because of the Clarity Act that's going to allow securities to be more regulated around tokenization and stable coins which stable coins going back to the yield curve.

If we start regulating that more, there's broader adoption that's demand for the front end of the curve.

of Well, they've got enough to pay their bills. Wait, this is a tiny balance sheet. 10 million bucks. This is a small company. Current liabilities of seven. They've got cash to pay the bills. They have cash to pay the bills.

So that's fine. And if I go to revenue, yeah, no revenues. So it's just they're just burning capital. So they're pre-revenue. I mean, it's a this is a concept of a plan is what this is.

And then lastly I've got circle. Now, circle is interesting because uh the move it made in the last week gave me a short setup which I'll talk about it but at the same time it may indicate life for my black count and again to remind you guys what that is um it has a target of 465.

I have held this as low probability over the last two months because we had breaks of support along this low but with this high here it's starting to look like that fourth wave for that two.

So, as long as it holds the bottom of this box, which I have a 56, that could be a very very very low two. Now, don't get me wrong, that will send that to below what I would call the 90% failure rate because and that that is or the failure path.

Anytime something breaks the 764 retrace in a way too, it 90% is likely to fail. And you can quote me on that. Actually, I would say 99%. Um, but again, uh, the thing to me is that buying at 56 with a stop at 48 is a no-brainer with this potential.

And I don't care if it fails. I just simply um treat that position less um, less precious. But now, let's zoom in to where we have now. We have more short-term. And again, before we ever get to 56 or where where I will think about buying, we have a again range breakout failure or a turtle soup setup if you like the IC ICT lingo.

I don't even know why they call it a turtle soup. Um, but you can see the little break over the range which I've drawn in the box and come back in. Also coming back was a nice bit of delta, negative delta, meaning people are selling into it.

Maybe running for the hills as their breakout failed. I don't know. But um it's very interesting and the probability is really high again back to Bitcoin and Ether that it goes through it travels through this range and likely reasonably likely because anytime it's gotten bought in a range it's it's been refusing to flush but reasonably likely to get a quick flush and at least into that 55 region.

If it's in the red count it's just going to keep going. It's going to go all the way to 40. So again I wouldn't don't buy 56 blindly. Let it show. Um, if you're, you know, you want to try this position now, I've got puts on it already, which I I uh suggested in the service.

I might add to that if it develops in a nice way. I might add leverage fund in a foreign K that I don't have access to options in. Um, so I may be adding to it. Uh, but uh, when we get to the underside and if what you're real interested is longs, just be very careful in the situation.

Again, it is 99% likely to fail. just um stop observe the market when it gets there at the 56 region and look for a reversal for which you can get a tight stop before you jump into it or if you want to buy a little bit here with a stop at 47 um that's reasonable just you know the problem with stocks they don't trade 247 in a liquid manner so that my my problem with um uh buying you know with a limit and then putting a stop you know is you might just get a very bad price if it gaps down um after hours.

That's the problem with that. I want I would with stocks especially, I want to see a reversal. Um just in case you get caught in something overnight before it has a chance to really really work um and then get get a gap down and and a terrible price on the exit.