Mark Roussin, CPA 对 $AVGO 的判断变化

2026-09-06看涨
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AVGO加速增长的AI收入(FY27为1150亿美元,FY28为2300亿美元)支撑长期看涨论点;财报后卖出被视为错误。

本周,我们从博通、Snowflake 和 Palo Alto 等公司获得了重要更新,这三家公司分别展示了人工智能的三个不同层面。博通为我们提供了关于人工智能基础设施的视角。

This week we got important updates from companies such as Broadcom, Snowflake, and Palo Alto , with all three companies providing a fascinating look at three different layers of artificial intelligence.

Broadcom gives us a perspective on artificial intelligence infrastructure .

但让我们先谈谈博通,因为这些数字非常庞大。博通刚刚公布了 296 亿美元的季度营收,同比增长 86%。非 GAAP 每股收益为 3.32 美元,公司在本季度内产生了 137 亿美元的可观自由现金流。

But let's start with Broadcom first, because these numbers are enormous. Broadcom just announced quarterly revenues of $29.6 billion. This represents an 86% year-on-year increase.

Non-GAAP earnings per share were $3.32, and the company generated an impressive $13.7 billion in free cash flow during the quarter alone.

2026-08-25看涨
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博通是AI基础设施支出和定制硅需求的受益者;若AI支出保持强劲,其前景乐观。

另一组值得考虑的公司是博通和迈威尔。事实上,迈威尔也将在本周晚些时候公布财报。这些公司更为复杂,因为博通和迈威尔受益于AI支出,但它们也代表了英伟达最大的长期威胁之一。为什么?

定制芯片。谷歌、Meta、OpenAI和其他超大规模企业越来越希望拥有专门为其工作负载设计的AI加速器。博通和迈威尔帮助实现这些芯片。所以,如果英伟达表示整体AI基础设施支出继续激增,这对博通和迈威尔都是好事。

但如果黄仁勋开始讨论定制加速器的竞争压力,这对这两家公司来说也是另一个重要的积极信号。这就是为什么我同时持有两边的敞口。我持有英伟达、AMD,以及博通和迈威尔,但它们的仓位规模都不同。

英伟达受益于通用加速计算,而博通和迈威尔则受益于超大规模企业越来越多地设计专用芯片。我不需要完美预测哪种架构会胜出。

Another set of companies to consider looking at is going to be Broadcom and Marvell. And in fact, Marvell also reports this week, later in the week. These companies are more nuanced because Broadcom and Marvell benefit from AI spending, but it also represents one of Nvidia's biggest long-term threats.

Why? Custom silicon. Google, Meta, OpenAI, other hyperscalers, these companies increasingly want AI accelerators designed specifically for their own workloads. Broadcom and Marvell help enable those chips.

So, if Nvidia says overall AI infrastructure spending continues exploding, that's great for both Broadcom and Marvell. But if Jensen starts discussing competitive pressures from custom accelerators, that's another important positive signal for both of these companies.

This is why I own exposure to both sides of the equation. I own Nvidia, AMD, and then Broadcom and Marvell, but position sizing is different for all of them. Nvidia benefits from general-purpose accelerated computing.

Broadcom and Marvell benefits as hyperscalers increasingly design specialized silicon. I don't need to perfectly predict which architecture wins.