Walmart 估值偏高，合理价格为 70 美元，而当前价格为 110 美元。
逐段跳播
Costco 和 Walmart 无疑属于全球最优秀的零售商之列。两者的商业模式非常相似，都是以尽可能低的价格向消费者提供商品。
Costco and Walmart are undoubtedly among the best retailers in the world. Both operate on a very similar business model, which is to offer goods at the lowest possible prices to consumers.
但在当前市场价格下，哪一只是更值得买入的股票？这正是我想在本视频中回答的问题。从过去十二个月的营收来看，Walmart 的营收是 Costco 的两倍多。过去十二个月，Walmart 实现营收 7360 亿美元，而 Costco 为 2940 亿美元。
But which of them is the better stock to buy at current market prices? This is the question I want to answer in this video. Based on revenues over the past twelve months, Walmart's revenues are more than double those of Costco.
Walmart generated $736 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, while Costco generated $294 billion.
Walmart 在全球拥有超过 10,000 家实体门店。
Walmart has more than 10,000 physical stores worldwide.
事实上，Walmart 在拓展电商业务方面做得非常出色。事实上，它正在从 Amazon 手中夺取市场份额。借助其遍布全球的 10,000 多个门店网络，Walmart 能够比 Amazon 更快地完成订单履约。
In fact, Walmart has done an excellent job of expanding its e-commerce business. In fact, it is gaining market share at the expense of Amazon. Using its network of more than 10,000 locations worldwide, Walmart allows itself to fulfill orders even faster than Amazon can.
所以，Walmart 和 Costco 最让人意外的一点，就是它们的利润率。过去十二个月，Walmart 的营业利润率仅为 4.4%，而 Costco 为 3.82%，这意味着每 100 美元的销售额，这些公司只赚取约 4 美元的营业利润。这其中还包括会员费。
So, the biggest thing that surprises people about Walmart and Costco is their profit margins. Walmart's operating profit margin is only 4.4% over the past twelve months, while Costco's is 3.82%, meaning that for every $100 of sales, these companies make an operating profit of about $4. This includes membership fees.
有时我在大学里会给学生布置一个关于 Walmart 和 Costco 的项目。当学生们深入研究细节、发现这些结果时，他们会来找我，表示很惊讶这些公司只实现了这样的盈利水平。
Sometimes I assign students a project about Walmart and Costco at the university. When the students delve into the details and discover these results, they come to me and express their surprise that these companies are only achieving these levels of profitability.
许多人以为这些公司赚取很高的利润率，但事实并非如此。这个行业并不是一个高利润的行业。
Many people assume that these companies make large profit margins, but this is simply not true. This sector is not a profitable sector.
Walmart 和 Costco 并不是唯一实现低利润率的公司。事实上，全球几乎所有零售商都是如此。但在评估 Walmart 和 Costco 时，这个指标变得越来越重要。
Walmart and Costco are not the only companies achieving low profit margins. In fact, this includes almost every retailer around the world. But when evaluating Walmart and Costco, this metric becomes increasingly important.
Walmart 在这方面也非常擅长，但 Costco 让它显得远远落在后面，而事实也确实如此，Costco 的库存周转率为 12。
Walmart is very good at this too, but Costco makes it look like a distant second, which it really is with an inventory turnover rate of 12.
现在，我们来看估值。Costco 的股票远期市盈率为 36.3，较 Walmart 约有 10% 的溢价，Walmart 的股票远期市盈率为 34。
Now, let's look at the valuation. Costco's stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 36.3, at a premium of about 10% to Walmart, whose stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 34.
对于传统零售商来说，这些估值相对偏高，但这恰恰凸显出 Walmart 和 Costco 赢得了投资者多大的尊重，才能在一个利润并不丰厚的行业中获得如此高的估值。
Now, these are relatively high valuations for traditional retailers, but this only highlights how much respect Walmart and Costco have earned from investors to impose such a high valuation in a sector that is not very profitable.
因此，我也计算了这两家公司的现金流折现估值。Walmart 的股票似乎被高估了。我计算出的合理价格为 70 美元，而 Walmart 当前的市场价格为 110 美元。
Therefore, I also calculated the discounted cash flow valuations for these two companies. Walmart's stock appears to be overvalued. I calculated a fair price of $70, while Walmart's current market price is $110.
这个频道对 $WMT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。