So, like I'm I'm as short treasuries as you can be. I'm short TLT, Zeros, ZROZ, LQD, which is investment grade credit, high yield credit, HYG, Jojo, which is kind of like a poser manager.
If you look at the technicals on TLT, TLT is sitting which which is an average duration about 25-year bond. If you look at the weekly chart of TLT, you'll find that TLT is at this nearly glorious bottom.
And finally, TLT bonds, we know what's going on with them, right? We hit a new historic low when the 10-year bond yield reached 5%, and we are now trying to get back above that.
Therefore, many believe that 5% may represent the highest level for a period, and that may be true, but what we will be watching is what happens in the short term. Where we have seen this rise, it seems that an upward pattern has begun to form, but we have seen this before, haven't we?
Along the way, even as TLT continued to record lower highs and lows, we saw a repetition of bullish patterns forming, where breakouts were either nonexistent here, lasting only a few days in June, and then for a shorter period in August.
This shows that we should be very aware of the fact that TLT sometimes does, or has done in the past, when it starts to bounce back, and looks good, when it looks like the breakout will be much stronger, then the selling comes back, and yields start to rise again.
